关于气候变化经济学的斯特恩评论:内容、见解和批判性辩论的评估

O. Godard
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引用次数: 29

摘要

尼古拉斯·斯特恩爵士,世界银行前首席经济学家,应英国政府之邀,领导一项关于全球气候变化经济学的研究。《斯特恩评论》于2006年10月出版,引起了欧洲学术界、非政府组织、媒体乃至世界范围内各界的广泛关注。本文的目的首先是强调该评论的主要观点,并挑选出一些最重要的事实数据和定量评估,这些数据和评估构成了该评论对该主题的丰富贡献,超越了广为人知的惊人结果,其中气候变化可能造成的损害与20世纪两次世界大战的影响相比,但却永远持续。调查最后反思了几位经济学家(主要是美国经济学家)对《斯特恩报告》的批评,这些经济学家对《报告》中包含的综合评估建模工作提出了批评。最重要的批评是,用于解决这一长期问题的低贴现率,以及对后代适应新的全球气候的处理。矛盾的是,为确保平等对待所有世代的效用而选择的低贴现率这一备受攻击的选择,是最符合功利主义哲学的,而功利主义哲学正是《斯特恩评论》及其大多数批评者所认同的经济学类型的基础。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
The Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change: contents, insights and assessment of the critical debate
Sir Nicholas Stern, former Chief economist of the World Bank, was asked by the British government to lead a review on the economics of global climate change. The Stern Review was published in October 2006 and attracted a great deal of attention from various circles, from academic to NGOs and the media in Europe, but also worldwide. This article aims first to highlight the Review’s main points and to single out a selection of the most significant factual data and quantitative evaluations that make up the Review’s rich contribution to the subject, going beyond the well-publicised striking results in which the possible damages of climate change are compared to the impact of the two world wars of the 20th century, but lasting forever. The survey concludes with reflections on criticism of the Stern Review made by several economists, mostly in the US, regarding the integrated assessment modelling exercise included in the Review. The most consequential criticisms are related to the low discount rate used to tackle this very long-term issue and the treatment of adaptation of future generations to a new global climate. Paradoxically, the much-attacked choice of a low discount rate chosen to ensure an equal treatment of the utility of all generations is the best-grounded in the utilitarian philosophy that underpins the type of economics that both the Stern Review and most of its critics share.
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