社会福利计划作为老龄化研究的来源-问题、措施和改进的可能性

Laura Romeu Gordo, A. Motel-Klingebiel, S. Wurm
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引用次数: 2

摘要

人口变化是现代社会发展的一个重要结果。预期寿命的延长、死亡率向晚年转移以及长期的低生育率导致人口结构发生重大变化,其中一个主要特点是老年人的人数和比例增加。死亡率模式的变化可以被视为现代社会的成功。但是,人口结构的变化对现代社会意味着新的风险和挑战,也意味着新的机遇,因为它们影响着个人的生命历程以及整个社会。目前的低出生率也预示着未来的低出生率,因为潜在母亲的数量会减少。与此同时,预期寿命预计不会减少。因此,在未来几十年里,德国老年人和年轻人之间的关系将发生变化。到2050年,大约一半的人口将处于工作年龄,超过30%的人口将达到或超过65岁。在未来的40年里,20岁到65岁以下的人口将从5000万减少到3500万到3900万(联邦统计局,2006年)。此外,劳动年龄人口将经历一个老龄化过程,这意味着到2050年,近40%的劳动年龄人口将在50至64岁之间(联邦统计局,2006年)。为了了解劳动力市场和这些人口趋势的财政影响,分析老年人与工作人口的比例,即所谓的老年抚养比,是很能说明问题的。根据联邦统计局(2006年)的数据,老年抚养比率将从2005年的32%增长到2050年的60%或64%。这一预测表明,在40年内,德国每三个工作年龄的人将有两人领取养恤金。如果我们考虑将退休年龄降至67岁,结果也不会乐观得多,这表明仅提高法定退休年龄并不能解决公共养老金体系的可持续性和劳动力减少的问题。高龄人口的比例也在增长。而80人口在2005年接近400万,到2050年将增长到1000万(联邦统计局,2006年)。这一趋势对保健服务的提供产生了重要影响。在这种人口背景下,老龄化和晚年生活的跨学科研究具有重要意义。因此,老龄化研究成为德国社会经济小组(SOEP)等主要调查的一项日益重要的任务。作为“研究基础设施”的一部分,他们被呼吁投资于其潜力和吸引力,以研究老龄化和晚年生活。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
SOEP as a Source for Research on Ageing - Issues, Measures and Possibilities for Improvement
Demographic change is a key consequence of the development of modern societies. The prolongation of life expectancy, shifts of mortality into later life and long-term low fertility rates cause essential changes in population structures - with an increase in the number and proportion of older people as a key feature. The changes in mortality patterns can be seen as a success of modern society. But demographic shifts imply new risks and challenges as well as opportunities for modern societies, as they affect individual life courses as well as societies as a whole. The present low birth rates also predict low birth numbers in the future, since the number of potential mothers decreases. At the same time, life expectancies are not expected to decrease. As a consequence, the relation between old and young people will change in Germany in the next decades. In 2050, just about half of the population will be of working age and more than 30 percent will be 65 years old or older. The number of the 20 to under 65-year-olds will decrease from 50 million to a figure between 35 and 39 million in the next 40 years (Federal Statistical Office, 2006). Furthermore, the working age population will undergo an ageing process, implying that in 2050, nearly 40 percent of the working-age population will be between 50 and 64 years old (Federal Statistical Office, 2006). In order to understand the labour market and the fiscal implications of these population trends, it is very illustrative to analyse the proportion of older individuals in relation to the working population, the so-called old-age dependency ratio. According to the Federal Statistical Office (2006) the old-age dependency ratio will grow from 32 percent in 2005 to 60 or 64 percent by 2050. This projection indicates that in 40 years, for every three persons of working-age in Germany there will be two persons receiving a pension. If we consider the age cut at 67, the results are not much more optimistic, indicating that increasing the legal retirement age alone is not a solution for the sustainability of the public pension systems and for the decrease in the labour force. The proportion of people of very old age is also growing. While the 80 population was nearly 4 million in 2005, it will grow to 10 million by 2050 (Federal Statistical Office, 2006). This trend has inter alia, important consequences for health care provision. In this demographic context, interdisciplinary research of ageing and later life gains in relevance. Thus, research on ageing becomes an increasingly crucial task for major surveys like the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP). As part of the “research infrastructure” they are called upon to invest in its potentials and attractiveness for research on ageing and later life.
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