在未来的二十年里，电脑的使用会有什么不同

Proceedings of the 1999 IEEE Symposium on Security and Privacy (Cat. No.99CB36344) Pub Date : 1999-05-09 DOI:10.1109/SECPRI.1999.766917

M. Weiser

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引用次数: 14

摘要

如何使用计算机将部分取决于技术趋势，部分取决于人们对计算需求的趋势，以及生活和活动的变化。这些变化是反馈循环的一部分:例如，需求的变化引起投资的变化，投资的变化引起技术的变化，从而改变生活方式。过了几年，这个场景的形状就不会比任何其他混沌系统更可预测了。尽管如此，我还是提出了一些强大的吸引子，这些吸引子基于从现在推断出来的似乎是稳定的区域。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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How computers will be used differently in the next twenty years

How computers will be used will be determined in part by technology trends, and in part by trends in the needs of people for computation, and by changes in living and activities. These changes are parts of feedback loops: for example, changes in needs cause changes in investments which cause changes in technology which enable changes in lifestyle. Beyond a few years the scene is no more predictable in shape than any other chaotic system. I nonetheless propose some strong attractors based on what seem to be stable regions extrapolated from the present.

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Proceedings of the 1999 IEEE Symposium on Security and Privacy (Cat. No.99CB36344)

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