用于动态可靠性和风险分析的混合计算引擎

Jun Yang, Fengjun Li, Chenyu Jiang, Lichen Zheng, Y. Deng, Jieheng Liang, Ming Yang
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文提出了一种将布尔模型与解析模型相结合的混合计算引擎,用于考虑动态交互和多相任务的复杂安全关键型工业系统的动态可靠性和风险分析。混合计算引擎主要集中在三个方面:1)离散时间动态事件树(DDET)模型的生成和分析;ii)不确定条件下基于风险的复杂数字工业过程系统可靠性建模与失效分析;iii)基于GO-FLOW方法的安全关键系统动态任务可靠性分析及任务成功和安全管理的应急响应规划。基于基于图的搜索和序列图重构实现的DDET模型可以一致地链接到Markov/CCMT和GO-FLOW模块,用于分支概率估计。通过简化的案例研究简要说明了用于计算效率高的马尔可夫/CCMT分析和补充的面向成功的路径跟踪和规划的通用多路搜索求解器。结果表明,在动态可靠性和风险分析中,系统集成解决方案能够提供全面的概率建模工具包,并具有连接性,克服了单一方法的不足。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
A Hybrid Compute Engine Implemented for Dynamic Reliability and Risk Analysis
In the paper, we present a hybrid compute engine integrating Boolean and analytical models for dynamic reliability and risk analysis of complex safety-critical industrial systems with dynamic interactions and multiphase mission consideration. The hybrid compute engine focuses on three aspects: i) Discrete-time Dynamic Event Tree (DDET) models generation and analysis; ii) risk-based reliability modeling and failure analysis of complex digital industrial process systems under uncertainties using Markov/CCMT approach; iii) dynamic mission reliability analysis of safety-critical systems and emergency response planning for mission success and safety management by GO-FLOW method. The DDET models implemented based on graph-based search and sequence diagram refactoring can be consistently linked to Markov/CCMT and GO-FLOW modules for branch probability estimation. The versatile multi-way search solver for computationally efficient Markov/CCMT analysis and supplementary success-oriented path tracing and planning are briefly illustrated with simplified case studies. It shows that the system integration solutions can provide the comprehensive probabilistic modeling toolkit with the connectivity to overcome drawbacks of any single methodologies when facing the challenges for dynamic reliability and risk analysis.
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