国际航段航空流量预测模型的建立

S. Srinidhi
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引用次数: 5

摘要

在服务提供商之间的需求分配方面,近乎完美的竞争场景给任何行业带来了担忧。在航空业,这一点更为重要,因为航空业的服务水平非常高。从他(航空公司)提供的产品集到客户偏好集的最大映射的玩家驱动需求。1991年的经济改革,随后是对印度天空的放松管制,见证了航空业的指数级增长,并导致了近乎完美的竞争。在国际部门更是如此,曾经(只有)国内航空公司已经开始跨境运营。因此,对这项服务的需求是最重要的,航空公司必须在运营前了解他们对各自航段的需求。在上述背景下,本文讨论了一种方法,以开发从印度运营国际部门的航空公司的客运量预测模型。该模型是将物理学中的引力模型与需求与价格联系起来的微观经济理论模型相融合。这项研究提供了影响航空公司需求的因素的全面图景,特别是服务之外的因素可能在需求增长中发挥重要作用。该模型将在印度航空公司(Air India)提供的数据上进行测试,印度航空公司是为研究目的而选择的国家航空公司。该模型虽然适用于印度航空公司,但具有普遍适用性。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Development of an airline traffic forecasting model on international sectors
Near-perfect competition scenario has gifted concerns to any industry in terms of demand splits amongst service providers. This is even more consequential in the airline industry where superior service levels rule the day. That player who gets maximum mappings from the set of his(airline) offerings to the set of customer preferences drives the demand. The economic reforms of 1991 followed by the deregulation of Indian skies has witnessed exponential growth of the airline industry and has resulted in near-perfect competition. This is more so in the International sectors, where once (only)domestic carriers, have commenced across border operations. Hence, demand for the service assumes prime importance and airlines have to be aware of their demand on respective sectors prior to operations. In the above context, this paper discusses a methodology to develop a passenger traffic forecasting model for airlines operating on international sectors from India. The model is a fusion of the gravity model in physics and micro-economic theoretic model linking demand to price. This research provides a comprehensive picture of the factors affecting airline demand, especially, factors outside service that could play an important role in demand growth. The model will be tested on data provided by Air India, the national carrier chosen for the purpose of the study. The model, though applied to Air India would have general applicability.
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