Risk comprehension of COVID-19 statistics: Antecedents and Effects on Behavior

Since individual differences in both probabilistic reasoning and reflective ability seem to be linked to propensity for critical thinking, we predicted that people with high probabilistic and reflective ability would tend to better understand COVID-19 statistics. We also predicted that people more interested in statistics would be more correct in risk comprehension, which, in turn, would mediate the relationship between probabilistic reasoning ability, reflective ability, interest in statistics and not precautionary behaviors. Participants were 193 Psychology students enrolled in an undergraduate introductory statistics course at the University of Florence and they completed an online survey during the lockdown (March 2020). The hypothesized model showed a good fit and all coefficients were statistically significant and in the expected directions. This study shows the importance of statistical literacy for increasing support to fight the coronavirus, through the comprehension of information about COVID-19 data and risks.