Analysis of Clear-Air Turbulence Avoidance Maneuvers

In order to better understand how turbulence impacts the National Airspace System (NAS), an analysis is provided for how pilots tactically respond when encountering Clear-Air Turbulence (CAT). Given estimations of CAT and aircraft trajectory data describing potential turbulence encounters in the NAS, models are developed to estimate the relationships between the type and magnitude of the maneuver versus the existence of turbulence in the upcoming sector of airspace or the existence of turbulence along the upcoming flight trajectory. Given that the existence of turbulence throughout the NAS can only be estimated through limited observations and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)-based models, these models must necessarily be probabilistic. Results based on historical data indicate that pilot responses to CAT depend on several factors, including user class, weight class, physical class, aircraft type, as well as airline policies. This information can be used within the Next Generation Air Transportation Sys...