THE LONG VIEW

Freight car demand has peaked. Deliveries are expected to decline in 1997, drop again in 1998 and could dip again in 1999. The market likely will flatten out, and stay flat, through 2001. The analysis sounds ominous, and yet, car builders strive to keep flat market in historical perspective by looking at the following numbers: 40-45,000 cars for the next couple of years, compared to 11,508 new cars delivered 20 years ago; as recently as 1992, deliveries fell short of 26,000 cars. Not everything about the post-boom freight-car picture is rosy. Consolidation, electric utility deregulation and a less than robust economy continue to breed uncertainty industrywide. The article examines some of the ways car builders are looking past their recent successes and focusing on the big picture of meeting the needs of the customers, as customer success means success for the industry.