Forecasting Of Rupiah Exchange Rate in ASEAN throughout the COVID-19 Pandemic using ARIMA

During the COVID-19 pandemic, there was a spike in the exchange rate of the rupiah against the US dollar. ASEAN countries, as neighbors of Indonesia, also do not escape the same problem. This study discusses which ASEAN countries experienced a spike in exchange rate changes during the COVID19 pandemic by forecasting currency exchange rates in several ASEAN countries against the Indonesian currency. The Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average algorithm or abbreviated as ARIMA has been widely used in forecasting time series data on the Rupiah currency. All ARIMA models in this study can still be accepted using the RMSE and Relative RMSE measurements. The results of this study are in the form of predictive data analysis to describe the condition of the Rupiah exchange rate with the currencies of the ASEAN region during the COVID-19 pandemic. In general, the exchange rates of all ASEAN currencies rose against the Rupiah at the beginning of the pandemic, but then fluctuated. The forecast results show that the COVID-19 pandemic does not have a significant impact on buying and selling exchange rates for almost all ASEAN currencies against the Rupiah.