论经济市场周期与主导市场行为

O. Butriy
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摘要

Dalio的经济市场周期理论似乎证明了一个长期存在的文明周期哲学理论,该理论大约出现在17世纪的欧洲。文明周期理论认为,每个人类文明都有一个成长和衰亡的生命周期,比如美索不达米亚文明、埃及文明、古代中国、古希腊、罗马帝国、奥匈帝国、大英帝国。在我看来,Dalio对发展波动的理解非常接近,并将这种理解带入了经济市场领域。为什么一个大的经济(市场)周期必须是75-100年?下面,我想谈谈我对Dalio的经济市场周期理论的理解,Ray Dalio可能不同意。这是我自己的观察结果,可以接受批评。我认为75-100年是社会上三代人成熟的时间跨度。比方说,一个人从事经济活动30-35年。接下来,我认为75-100年的大经济市场周期代表了社会的三代人,即发展者的一代、受益者的一代和衰退者的一代。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
On Economic Market Cycles and Dominating Market Behaviour
The Dalio's Economic Market Cycles theory seems to be a proof of a long-standing philosophic theory of civilisation cycles, which appeared around the XVIIth century in Europe. The Civilisation Cycles theory suggests that each human civilisation knows a life cycle of growth and decay, like Mesopotamian Civilisation, Egyptian Civilisation, Ancient China, Ancient Greece, Roman Empire, Austro-Hungarian Empire, British Empire.

It seems to me that Dalio has come very close to the understanding of development swings and brought this understanding into the economic market domain.

Why does it have to be 75-100 years for a big Economic (Market) Cycle?

In the following, I would like to give my understanding of the Dalio's theory of Economic Market Cycles, which Ray Dalio might not agree with. It’s my own observations open to criticism.

I suggest that 75-100 years it’s the time span of 3 mature generations of people in the society. Let’s say, a person stays economically active 30-35 years.

In the following, I suggest that that 75-100 years of a Big Economic Market Cycle represents three generations of society, that is, the generation of developers, the generation of benefiters and the generation of decline.
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