{"title":"论经济市场周期与主导市场行为","authors":"O. Butriy","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3608381","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"The Dalio's Economic Market Cycles theory seems to be a proof of a long-standing philosophic theory of civilisation cycles, which appeared around the XVIIth century in Europe. The Civilisation Cycles theory suggests that each human civilisation knows a life cycle of growth and decay, like Mesopotamian Civilisation, Egyptian Civilisation, Ancient China, Ancient Greece, Roman Empire, Austro-Hungarian Empire, British Empire.<br><br>It seems to me that Dalio has come very close to the understanding of development swings and brought this understanding into the economic market domain.<br><br>Why does it have to be 75-100 years for a big Economic (Market) Cycle?<br><br>In the following, I would like to give my understanding of the Dalio's theory of Economic Market Cycles, which Ray Dalio might not agree with. It’s my own observations open to criticism.<br><br>I suggest that 75-100 years it’s the time span of 3 mature generations of people in the society. Let’s say, a person stays economically active 30-35 years.<br><br>In the following, I suggest that that 75-100 years of a Big Economic Market Cycle represents three generations of society, that is, the generation of developers, the generation of benefiters and the generation of decline.","PeriodicalId":191513,"journal":{"name":"European Economics: Macroeconomics & Monetary Economics eJournal","volume":"40 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2020-05-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"On Economic Market Cycles and Dominating Market Behaviour\",\"authors\":\"O. Butriy\",\"doi\":\"10.2139/ssrn.3608381\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"The Dalio's Economic Market Cycles theory seems to be a proof of a long-standing philosophic theory of civilisation cycles, which appeared around the XVIIth century in Europe. The Civilisation Cycles theory suggests that each human civilisation knows a life cycle of growth and decay, like Mesopotamian Civilisation, Egyptian Civilisation, Ancient China, Ancient Greece, Roman Empire, Austro-Hungarian Empire, British Empire.<br><br>It seems to me that Dalio has come very close to the understanding of development swings and brought this understanding into the economic market domain.<br><br>Why does it have to be 75-100 years for a big Economic (Market) Cycle?<br><br>In the following, I would like to give my understanding of the Dalio's theory of Economic Market Cycles, which Ray Dalio might not agree with. It’s my own observations open to criticism.<br><br>I suggest that 75-100 years it’s the time span of 3 mature generations of people in the society. Let’s say, a person stays economically active 30-35 years.<br><br>In the following, I suggest that that 75-100 years of a Big Economic Market Cycle represents three generations of society, that is, the generation of developers, the generation of benefiters and the generation of decline.\",\"PeriodicalId\":191513,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"European Economics: Macroeconomics & Monetary Economics eJournal\",\"volume\":\"40 1\",\"pages\":\"0\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2020-05-22\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"European Economics: Macroeconomics & Monetary Economics eJournal\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3608381\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"European Economics: Macroeconomics & Monetary Economics eJournal","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3608381","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
On Economic Market Cycles and Dominating Market Behaviour
The Dalio's Economic Market Cycles theory seems to be a proof of a long-standing philosophic theory of civilisation cycles, which appeared around the XVIIth century in Europe. The Civilisation Cycles theory suggests that each human civilisation knows a life cycle of growth and decay, like Mesopotamian Civilisation, Egyptian Civilisation, Ancient China, Ancient Greece, Roman Empire, Austro-Hungarian Empire, British Empire.
It seems to me that Dalio has come very close to the understanding of development swings and brought this understanding into the economic market domain.
Why does it have to be 75-100 years for a big Economic (Market) Cycle?
In the following, I would like to give my understanding of the Dalio's theory of Economic Market Cycles, which Ray Dalio might not agree with. It’s my own observations open to criticism.
I suggest that 75-100 years it’s the time span of 3 mature generations of people in the society. Let’s say, a person stays economically active 30-35 years.
In the following, I suggest that that 75-100 years of a Big Economic Market Cycle represents three generations of society, that is, the generation of developers, the generation of benefiters and the generation of decline.