自适应小波神经网络用于风电场短期预报

Jennifer Vanessa Mejía Lara, R. Velásquez
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引用次数: 1

摘要

本文采用Julia Programming实现了基于Kriging理论和自适应小波神经网络(AWNN)的时空有功功率(AP)预测;它考虑了非平稳数据的高度随机和随机特征的风速(WS)特征,数据校准为21年的数据(2000 - 2021);它被认为具有影响;利用Kriging理论构建轮毂高度处风速的物理模型,根据风电场的制造商曲线,作为有功功率预测统计模型的输入。结果表明:与ARX方法相比,ARMAX方法的预报精度提高了72.4%,ARMAX方法的预报精度提高了75.5%,模糊方法的预报精度提高了81.1%,利用时空风预报精度提高了89.2%。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Adaptive wavelet neural network for short-term wind farm forecast
In this research article, it has been implemented an spatio-temporal active power (AP) forecast based on the Kriging theory and Adaptive wavelet neural network (AWNN) by using Julia Programming; it considers the wind speed (WS) characteristics of highly stochastic and random features with non-stationary data, with data calibrated with 21 years of data (2000 to 2021); it is considered with the influence; the physical model is structured by Kriging theory for the wind speed at hub height, according the manufacturer curve in the wind farm, the model is a input in the statistical model for the active power forecast. Our findings are the improved accuracy compared with the ARX 72.4%, ARMAX 75.5% and fuzzy 81.1% approaches, by using spatio-temporal wind forecasts, the accuracy is increased as 89.2%.
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