{"title":"自适应小波神经网络用于风电场短期预报","authors":"Jennifer Vanessa Mejía Lara, R. Velásquez","doi":"10.1109/EIRCON52903.2021.9613642","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"In this research article, it has been implemented an spatio-temporal active power (AP) forecast based on the Kriging theory and Adaptive wavelet neural network (AWNN) by using Julia Programming; it considers the wind speed (WS) characteristics of highly stochastic and random features with non-stationary data, with data calibrated with 21 years of data (2000 to 2021); it is considered with the influence; the physical model is structured by Kriging theory for the wind speed at hub height, according the manufacturer curve in the wind farm, the model is a input in the statistical model for the active power forecast. Our findings are the improved accuracy compared with the ARX 72.4%, ARMAX 75.5% and fuzzy 81.1% approaches, by using spatio-temporal wind forecasts, the accuracy is increased as 89.2%.","PeriodicalId":403519,"journal":{"name":"2021 IEEE Engineering International Research Conference (EIRCON)","volume":"12 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2021-10-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"1","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Adaptive wavelet neural network for short-term wind farm forecast\",\"authors\":\"Jennifer Vanessa Mejía Lara, R. Velásquez\",\"doi\":\"10.1109/EIRCON52903.2021.9613642\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"In this research article, it has been implemented an spatio-temporal active power (AP) forecast based on the Kriging theory and Adaptive wavelet neural network (AWNN) by using Julia Programming; it considers the wind speed (WS) characteristics of highly stochastic and random features with non-stationary data, with data calibrated with 21 years of data (2000 to 2021); it is considered with the influence; the physical model is structured by Kriging theory for the wind speed at hub height, according the manufacturer curve in the wind farm, the model is a input in the statistical model for the active power forecast. Our findings are the improved accuracy compared with the ARX 72.4%, ARMAX 75.5% and fuzzy 81.1% approaches, by using spatio-temporal wind forecasts, the accuracy is increased as 89.2%.\",\"PeriodicalId\":403519,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"2021 IEEE Engineering International Research Conference (EIRCON)\",\"volume\":\"12 1\",\"pages\":\"0\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2021-10-27\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"1\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"2021 IEEE Engineering International Research Conference (EIRCON)\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1109/EIRCON52903.2021.9613642\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"2021 IEEE Engineering International Research Conference (EIRCON)","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1109/EIRCON52903.2021.9613642","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
Adaptive wavelet neural network for short-term wind farm forecast
In this research article, it has been implemented an spatio-temporal active power (AP) forecast based on the Kriging theory and Adaptive wavelet neural network (AWNN) by using Julia Programming; it considers the wind speed (WS) characteristics of highly stochastic and random features with non-stationary data, with data calibrated with 21 years of data (2000 to 2021); it is considered with the influence; the physical model is structured by Kriging theory for the wind speed at hub height, according the manufacturer curve in the wind farm, the model is a input in the statistical model for the active power forecast. Our findings are the improved accuracy compared with the ARX 72.4%, ARMAX 75.5% and fuzzy 81.1% approaches, by using spatio-temporal wind forecasts, the accuracy is increased as 89.2%.