生成温带气旋路径参考数据集的复合方法:在地中海气旋上的应用

E. Flaounas, Leonardo Aragão, Lisa Bernini, Stavros Dafis, Benjamin Doiteau, H. Flocas, S. Gray, Alexia Karwat, J. Kouroutzoglou, P. Lionello, M. Miglietta, Florian Pantillon, C. Pasquero, Platon Patlakas, M. Picornell, F. Porcù, Matthew D. K. Priestley, M. Reale, M. Roberts, H. Saaroni, Dor Sandler, E. Scoccimarro, M. Sprenger, B. Ziv
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引用次数: 3

摘要

摘要为了研究温带气旋的气候学,过去发展了许多气旋探测和跟踪方法。然而,所有的cdtm在定义和跟踪气旋中心方面都有不同的方法。这自然导致气旋路径气候学具有不一致的物理特征。更重要的是,CDTMs通常会产生数量不可忽略的弱大气特征轨迹,这些轨迹不对应于大尺度或中尺度涡旋,并且在CDTMs之间可能存在显著差异。由于在CDTM输出中缺乏共识以及其中包含大量不确定路径,长期以来一直禁止制作普遍接受的温带气旋路径参考数据集。这样的数据集可以提供风暴路径气候学分析的可比结果,也可以有助于cdtm的评估和改进。为了弥补这一差距,我们提出了一种新的方法,该方法将来自不同CDTM的重叠轨道组合在一起,并产生复合轨道,集中多个CDTM的一致性。在本研究中,我们将该方法应用于10个完善的CDTMs的输出,这些CDTMs最初应用于1979-2020年42年期间的ERA5再分析。我们测试了我们的结果对识别重叠气旋路径的时空标准的敏感性,并且出于基准的原因,我们产生了五个主观跟踪气旋的参考数据集。结果表明,复合路径的气候数量明显低于单个cdtm的气候数量,而基准得分仍然很高(即:计算由合成路径捕获的主观跟踪气旋的数量)。我们的研究结果表明,与单个cdtms产生的气旋路径相比,复合路径倾向于描述更强烈和更持久的气旋,具有更明显的早期、成熟和衰减阶段。根据它们的置信水平(由贡献cdtm的数量定义)对复合路径进行排序,结果表明,置信水平越高,产生的气旋越强烈,持续时间越长。考虑到我们的方法在产生具有物理意义和独特生命阶段的气旋轨迹方面的优势,我们建议将复合轨迹作为地中海气候研究的参考数据集。补编提供了所有置信水平的合成标准轨迹,并在结论中讨论了它们在科学研究和应用中的适当使用。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
A composite approach to produce reference datasets for extratropical cyclone tracks: application to Mediterranean cyclones
Abstract. Many cyclone detection and tracking methods (CDTMs) have been developed in the past to study the climatology of extratropical cyclones. However, all CDTMs have different approaches in defining and tracking cyclone centers. This naturally leads to cyclone track climatologies with inconsistent physical characteristics. More than that, it is typical for CDTMs to produce a non-negligible number of tracks of weak atmospheric features, which do not correspond to large-scale or mesoscale vortices and can differ significantly between CDTMs. Lack of consensus in CDTM outputs and the inclusion of significant numbers of uncertain tracks therein have long prohibited the production of a commonly accepted reference dataset of extratropical cyclone tracks. Such a dataset could allow comparable results on the analysis of storm track climatologies and could also contribute to the evaluation and improvement of CDTMs. To cover this gap, we present a new methodological approach that combines overlapping tracks from different CDTMs and produces composite tracks that concentrate the agreement of more than one CDTM. In this study we apply this methodology to the outputs of 10 well-established CDTMs which were originally applied to ERA5 reanalysis in the 42-year period of 1979–2020. We tested the sensitivity of our results to the spatiotemporal criteria that identify overlapping cyclone tracks, and for benchmarking reasons, we produced five reference datasets of subjectively tracked cyclones. Results show that climatological numbers of composite tracks are substantially lower than the ones of individual CDTMs, while benchmarking scores remain high (i.e., counting the number of subjectively tracked cyclones captured by the composite tracks). Our results show that composite tracks tend to describe more intense and longer-lasting cyclones with more distinguished early, mature and decay stages than the cyclone tracks produced by individual CDTMs. Ranking the composite tracks according to their confidence level (defined by the number of contributing CDTMs), it is shown that the higher the confidence level, the more intense and long-lasting cyclones are produced. Given the advantage of our methodology in producing cyclone tracks with physically meaningful and distinctive life stages, we propose composite tracks as reference datasets for climatological research in the Mediterranean. The Supplement provides the composite Mediterranean tracks for all confidence levels, and in the conclusion we discuss their adequate use for scientific research and applications.
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