Translation of ensemble-based weather forecasts into probabilistic air traffic capacity impact

A novel concept of using ensemble-based numerical weather prediction model data for weather-related, probabilistic aviation impact forecasting is demonstrated. This new concept represents a paradigm shift from “creating ensembles of weather information” (e.g., maps of predicted weather hazard intensity) to “developing ensembles of aviation userrelevant information” (i.e., maps of potential throughput as measured by the available flow capacity ratio), which entails a translation of weather forecasts into predictions of reduced airspace capacity. The proof-of-concept is exemplified by focusing on convective storms; however, the advocated approach may be applicable to other aviation hazards, like turbulence, icing, or ceiling and visibility as well. Although the concept is most pertinent to strategic en route traffic flow management, it could be extended to terminal area applications, such as predicting major wind shifts on runways, the onset of precipitation, or a transition from rain to snow. A probabilistic approach is most appropriate for strategic planning horizons, for which deterministic weather forecast are significantly less accurate and an ensemble of forecasts may provide better guidance about the spread of possible future weather scenarios.