Cyber Warfare Integration to Conventional Combat Modeling: A Bayesian Framework

Malware propagation is capable of introducing adverse effects in military operations since today’s high-tech military weapons and command, control, and communication systems are essentially interconnected ICT systems. Conventional warfare models have been recently upgraded to include cyber warfare elements to reflect the potential influence of cyber-attacks. In the present study, we propose and evaluate a framework for modeling the integrated effect of the spread of malware through computer networks and kinetic warfare. We employ a probabilistic learning approach, namely Bayesian Network analysis, to develop integrated combat models that characterize the spread of malware. The overall aim of the models is to predict which side will likely have the superiority at the end of the war, given the parameters that address the kinetic and cyber-effect influences of the fighting forces at the beginning.