Russia: Crisis, Exit and … Reform?

Examination of Russia's experience of the economic crisis and its future economic prospects reveals evidence that the sharp fall in GDP in 2008–9 was the result of the business world's perceptions of risk, conditioned by institutional weaknesses; it cannot be blamed simply on the fall in oil prices. Analysis of sources of growth, and of policy and reform options, indicates that the development of Russian GDP in 2010–20 is likely to be slower than in 1998–2008; radical economic and political reform is unlikely, but partial economic reform may be capable of generating some improvements in performance.