{"title":"战术海冰漂移预测中的不确定性表征方法","authors":"J. Blunt, D. Mitchell, A. Younan","doi":"10.5957/icetech-2014-115","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Hydrocarbon exploration in the high-Arctic offshore region may require enhanced station keeping capability in ice due to a limited open water summer season and/or the potential for temporary pack ice intrusions during a nominal open water season. Ice management systems have been employed as a means to improve station keeping ability in the presence of drifting sea ice, but accurate ice drift forecasting is central to improving the reliability of any ice management system. A rigorous approach to both (1) quantifying and (2) communicating the uncertainty associated with sea ice drift forecasting is proposed in this paper.","PeriodicalId":176359,"journal":{"name":"Day 3 Wed, July 30, 2014","volume":"7 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2014-07-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"A Method for Characterizing Uncertainty in Tactical Sea Ice Drift Forecasting\",\"authors\":\"J. Blunt, D. Mitchell, A. Younan\",\"doi\":\"10.5957/icetech-2014-115\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Hydrocarbon exploration in the high-Arctic offshore region may require enhanced station keeping capability in ice due to a limited open water summer season and/or the potential for temporary pack ice intrusions during a nominal open water season. Ice management systems have been employed as a means to improve station keeping ability in the presence of drifting sea ice, but accurate ice drift forecasting is central to improving the reliability of any ice management system. A rigorous approach to both (1) quantifying and (2) communicating the uncertainty associated with sea ice drift forecasting is proposed in this paper.\",\"PeriodicalId\":176359,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Day 3 Wed, July 30, 2014\",\"volume\":\"7 1\",\"pages\":\"0\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2014-07-28\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Day 3 Wed, July 30, 2014\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.5957/icetech-2014-115\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Day 3 Wed, July 30, 2014","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.5957/icetech-2014-115","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
A Method for Characterizing Uncertainty in Tactical Sea Ice Drift Forecasting
Hydrocarbon exploration in the high-Arctic offshore region may require enhanced station keeping capability in ice due to a limited open water summer season and/or the potential for temporary pack ice intrusions during a nominal open water season. Ice management systems have been employed as a means to improve station keeping ability in the presence of drifting sea ice, but accurate ice drift forecasting is central to improving the reliability of any ice management system. A rigorous approach to both (1) quantifying and (2) communicating the uncertainty associated with sea ice drift forecasting is proposed in this paper.
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