基于Chen和Lee模型的模糊时间序列预测印尼亚齐省新冠肺炎疫情

S. Saadah, Mochamad Agung Permana
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引用次数: 1

摘要

印度尼西亚是一个人口众多的发展中国家,拥有五个大岛,需要进一步研究COVID-19的传播,特别是在亚齐。亚齐三面环海,西面和北面是印度洋,东面是马六甲海峡。亚齐省是印度尼西亚2004年12月发生强烈地震的省份之一。因此,为了帮助监测亚齐人口,本研究选择亚齐省作为使用模糊时间序列方法预测ODP、PDP和阳性COVID-19生存率的省份。模糊时间序列是一种用于预测季节性问题的方法,如COVID-19大流行。通过使用Chen和Lee模型,该方法成功地拟合了预测阶段的实际数据。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Fuzzy Time Series using Chen and Lee Model to Predict COVID-19 in Aceh Indonesia
Indonesia as a development country with huge of population and has five big islands need to study further about spread of COVID-19, especially in Aceh. Aceh is surrounded by water on three sides that are the Indian Ocean to the west and north and the Strait of Malaca to the east. Aceh as one of the provinces in Indonesia severe earthquakes in December 2004. To help monitor Aceh population, thus, in this study Aceh was chosen as the province to predict of survival COVID-19 that classify to ODP, PDP, and Positive using fuzzy time series approach. Fuzzy time series in one of the methods that have been used to predict seasonal issue, such as pandemic COVID-19. By using Chen and Lee model, this approach succeeds to fit the data actual during the predict phase.
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