Sustainable Intensification in a Forest-agriculture Frontier Landscape: Analysis of C Capture and Sequestration Potential Under Two Different Scenarios in Binga District, Zimbabwe

Zimbabwe has been experiencing widespread land degradation, soil erosion, increasing aridity and temperatures that, coupled with population growth, pose a menace to agricultural production and prospective food security. As a win-win strategy, conservation agriculture (CA) is being promoted across the country with the objective to restore damaged ecosystems, curb and revert environmental depletion and guarantee food security. Binga district, where smallholders’ cropland expansion has been identified as the main driver of deforestation, has been one of the first recipient of CA-supporting projects and is the current beneficiary of a newly implemented Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD)+ project. In light of the controversial forest-sparing/forest-clearing effect of sustainable intensification, the present study tried to assess how the adoption of CA may influence deforestation rates in the area and related C stocks under two hypothetical future scenarios. A pool of experts was consulted with the objective to quantify land cover changes in 2040 and the model InVEST was used to compute the district C stocks under the two considered scenarios. Findings show that the rate of CA adoption in Binga is very limited, partly failing to address the problem of agriculture-driven deforestation and widespread farmland degradation. Consequently, both scenarios portray a district doomed to a poverty-environmental degradation vicious cycle that, according to experts, requires a holistic approach to be eased.