绝对购买力平价是否存在经验法则?

Zhibai Zhang
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引用次数: 2

摘要

我们发现了一个实际汇率(RER)是平稳的,名义汇率和价格水平是协整的,但购买力平价(PPP)不成立的例子,这揭示了单位根和协整检验在这种使用中的错误。我们认为RER偏差的分布可以用于测试绝对PPP。然后,我们运用这个新的检验和系数限制检验,根据哈罗德-巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应,研究了40个主要国家和地区(相对于美国)绝对购买力平价的效度。计量经济学证明表明,当大多数国家的平均相对人均GDP (GDPPs,相对于美国,US = 1)大于0.7时,绝对购买力平价成立或接近成立。而且,当平均gdp低于0.7时,它并不适用于几乎所有国家。因此,该理论的经验法则是gdp应该高于0.7。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Is There a Rule of Thumb for Absolute Purchasing Power Parity to Hold?
We find an example where real exchange rate (RER) is stationary and the nominal exchange rate and the price levels are cointegrated but purchasing power parity (PPP) does not hold, which reveals a fault of the unit root and cointegration tests in this use. We argue that the distribution of an RER misalignment can be used in testing absolute PPP. Then we apply this new test and the coefficient restriction test to study the validity of absolute PPP in 40 main countries and areas (versus the US) in light of the Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson effect. The econometric proofs show that absolute PPP holds or closely holds in most countries when their averaged relative GDP per capita (GDPPs, against the US with the US = 1) are greater than 0.7. And it does not hold in almost all countries when their averaged GDPPs are smaller than 0.7. Thus, a rule of thumb for the theory to hold is that the GDPP should be above 0.7.
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