Energy Security Performance Under Various Socioeconomic Scenarios and Efforts Toward Low-Carbon Society in Japan

A secure energy supply is important for Japan, but it is becoming difficult to attain due to increasing energy demand in emerging countries. In addition, the achievement of a low-carbon society is strongly related to energy security. This study aims to evaluate energy security performances in Japan under different socioeconomic and energy conditions in the future by applying three energy security indicators, based on the Shannon-Wiener diversity index. The 2050 Japan Low Carbon Navigator was used to estimate energy structures under five socioeconomic scenarios and three selected combinations of effort levels toward a low-carbon society. We found that the effort levels were the most influential factor in assessing energy security performances because energy supply and demand are greatly affected by the effort levels. The choice of socioeconomic scenario was also influential, although the impact of this choice was less significant than that of the effort level. On the other hand, the impact of country risk indicators is less significant than the above two factors. The energy security performances of Japan will be higher in the future, compared with the current level. However, if the country pursues further economic growth, its energy security performance will not greatly improve. With respect to Japan’s situation, which significantly depends on imported energy, increasing efforts to achieve a low-carbon society will contribute to the realization of a high-energy security society.