牛津大学2016年奥运会研究报告:奥运会的成本和超支

B. Flyvbjerg, Allison Stewart, Alexander Budzier
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引用次数: 83

摘要

鉴于过去十年举办的每届奥运会平均花费89亿美元,奥运会的规模和财务风险值得研究。牛津大学奥运会研究的目标是:(1)建立以往奥运会的实际产出成本,使成本能够在各届奥运会之间进行一致的比较;(2)确定历届奥运会的成本超支情况,即最终产出成本在多大程度上反映了申办阶段的预计预算,这也是为了在各届奥运会之间进行比较;(3)检验奥运会知识管理项目是否降低了奥运会的成本风险;最后,(4)对比历届奥运会,2016年奥运会的基准成本和超支成本。牛津大学这项研究的主要贡献在于建立了奥运会成本和成本超支的现象学,使各届奥运会能够进行一致和系统的比较。这是前所未有的。该研究的结论是,对于一个城市和国家来说,决定举办奥运会就是决定承担现存的成本最高、财务风险最大的大型项目之一,这是许多城市和国家已经认识到的危险。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
The Oxford Olympics Study 2016: Cost and Cost Overrun at the Games
Given that Olympic Games held over the past decade each have cost USD 8.9 billion on average, the size and financial risks of the Games warrant study. The objectives of the Oxford Olympics study are to (1) establish the actual outturn costs of previous Olympic Games in a manner where cost can consistently be compared across Games; (2) establish cost overruns for previous Games, i.e., the degree to which final outturn costs reflect projected budgets at the bid stage, again in a way that allows comparison across Games; (3) test whether the Olympic Games Knowledge Management Program has reduced cost risk for the Games, and, finally, (4) benchmark cost and cost overrun for the Rio 2016 Olympics against previous Games. The main contribution of the Oxford study is to establish a phenomenology of cost and cost overrun at the Olympics, which allows consistent and systematic comparison across Games. This has not been done before. The study concludes that for a city and nation to decide to stage the Olympic Games is to decide to take on one of the most costly and financially most risky type of megaproject that exists, something that many cities and nations have learned to their peril.
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