现阶段俄罗斯地区公共债务的可持续性

N. Afonina, A. Babicheva, A.K. Mitroshkina, N. Matnenko
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文介绍了俄罗斯地区债务可持续性研究的结果。它简要介绍了区域范围内债务可持续性类别的文献综述,债务可持续性评估指标体系。利用评级评估对俄罗斯联邦各主体的债务可持续性进行了分析。对地区债务可持续性的分析表明,新冠疫情造成的不利经济形势并未对债务负担产生强烈影响,2020年俄罗斯地区的可持续性有所提高。债务可持续性高的地区数量增加了3.6%,债务可持续性低的地区数量在85个科目中减少到3个。假定大流行病对债务可持续性的影响具有延迟效应,这是由于预算程序的特殊性。目前的挑战是由于经济的巨大不确定性,执行国家项目的需要很可能导致区域预算的债务负担增加。为了确定影响债务可持续性的关键因素,进行了相关分析,得出的结论是,该地区的社会经济状况与其债务可持续性具有平均密切关系。乌拉尔联邦区的债务可持续性区域采用一种规范的方法进行了评估。根据所得结论,提出了提高库尔干地区债务可持续性的方向。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
PUBLIC DEBT SUSTAINABILITY OF RUSSIAN REGIONS AT THE PRESENT STAGE
The paper presents the results of the study of debt sustainability of Russian regions. It presents a brief literature review of the category of debt sustainability in the regional context, the system of debt sustainability assessment indicators. The analysis of debt sustainability of the subjects of the Russian Federation using the rating assessment was carried out. The analysis of the region debt sustainability showed that the unfavorable economic situation caused by the COVID-19 pandemic did not have a strong impact on the debt burden, the sustainability of Russian regions in 2020 increased. The number of regions with high debt sustainability increased by 3.6 %, and the number of regions characterized by low debt sustainability decreased to 3 subjects out of 85. It is assumed that the impact of the pandemic on debt sustainability has a delayed effect and is due to the peculiarities of the budget process. Current challenges due to great economic uncertainty, the requirements for the implementation of national projects are likely to lead to an increase in the debt burden on regional budgets. In order to identify the key factors influencing the debt sustainability, a correlation analysis was conducted, and it was concluded that the socio-economic situation of the region has an average close relationship with its debt sustainability. The debt sustainability regions of the Urals Federal District were assessed using a regulated methodology. Based on the conclusions made, the directions for increasing debt sustainability of Kurgan region were formed.
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