摘要

Alsheikh, A. Hozayen
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究的目的是描述埃及阿斯旺高坝地区小农的混合农业系统,并调查不同的方案,以提高他们的经济回报。研究了三个村庄(Bashier Alkhir、Klabsha和Tomas We Afia)。2012年使用了92名居民的数据(分别来自三个研究村的19名、41名和32名居民)。一个线性规划(LP)模型测试了四种情景,以最大化经济回报描述为毛利率(GM),第一种(基本运行(LP1))假设在所有研究的作物和动物变量中自由选择。而第二种情景(LP2)对种植模式有限制,以满足农民对基本粮食和饲料作物的需求,并假设自由选择每种不同动物类型(牛、绵羊和山羊)的数量。第三种情景(LP3)假设自由选择种植模式,并对每种研究动物类型的数量有限制。第四种情景(LP4)的耕地面积平均分布在不同作物上,对每种动物类型的数量有限制。结果表明,为了获得最大的转基因,LP1的产量表明,在冬季,所有村庄的所有农场面积都应该种植苜蓿。而在夏天,他们应该在Bashier Alkhir和Tomas We Afia种植豆类饲料。此外,他们应该在Bashier Alkhir、Klabsha和Tomas We Afia分别饲养5.7头、10.5头和7.9头牛。而与实际情况相比,LP1的GM变化幅度约为2.1% ~ 34.1%;LP2为-28% ~ 24.6%,LP3为- 0.5% ~ 29.3%,LP4为-29.9% ~ 18.2%。与LP1相比,LP2、LP3和LP4的GM分别下降12.7% ~ 29.7%、1.7% ~ 6.8%和7.2% ~ 31.4%。结果表明,4种情景下的线性规划模型表明持有人应种植紫花苜蓿。此外,该模型还显示,在埃及阿斯旺的高坝地区,在作物-牲畜生产系统中,牛和羊比山羊更有利可图。与Bashier Alkhir和Tomas We Afia相比,在每个研究情景中,对LP模型的修改对Klabsha的GM的负面影响更大。土地、动物种类和可用的现金资源数量是限制性的约束,但劳动力不是。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Abstract
The objectives of this study were to describe the mixed farming system under small holders in High Dam area of Aswan, Egypt and to investigate different scenarios for improving their economic return. Three villages were studied (Bashier Alkhir, Klabsha and Tomas We Afia). Data on 92 holders were used (19, 41 and 32 holders from the three studies villages, respectively) in year 2012. A linear programming (LP) model with four scenarios were tested to maximize economic return described as gross margin (GM), the first (base run (LP1)) assumes free choice among all studied variables of crops and animals. While, the second scenario (LP2) had a constraint on cropping pattern to meet farmer’s needs of basic food and feed crops and assuming free choice of number of each different animal types (cattle, sheep and goat). The third scenario (LP3) assumed free choice of cropping pattern and had a constraint to the number of each studied animal type. The fourth scenario (LP4) had the cultivated area distributed equally on different crops and had a constraint to the number of each animal types. Results revealed that, in order that holders get the maximum GM, the output of LP1 suggests that, they should cultivate all their farm area with alfalfa in all villages in winter. While in summer, they should cultivate beans feeds, in Bashier Alkhir and Tomas We Afia. Also, they should keep 5.7, 10.5 and 7.9 head of cattle in Bashier Alkhir, Klabsha and Tomas We Afia, respectively. While, compared to actual situation, GM was changed by about 2.1% to 34.1% in LP1; -28% to 24.6% in LP2 and 0.5% to 29.3% in LP3 and -29.9% to 18.2% in LP4 in different villages. As compared to LP1, GM in LP2, LP3 and LP4 decreased by about 12.7 to 29.7%, 1.7% to 6.8% and 7.2% to 31.4%, respectively. It was concluded that linear programming model with the four scenarios showed that holders should cultivate Alfalfa. Also, the model showed that cattle followed by sheep are more profitable than goat within the crop-livestock production system in High-Dam area in Aswan, Egypt. GM in Klabsha was more negative affected by modification done on LP model than Bashier Alkhir and Tomas We Afia within each studied scenarios. Land, animal type and available amount of cash resources are limiting constrains but not labor.
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