根据市一级人口趋势划分俄罗斯领土

Y. Simagin
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引用次数: 0

摘要

这项研究的主题是城市、俄罗斯联邦主体和联邦区各级人口动态的地域差异。这项研究的目的是分析近年来俄罗斯城市地区和市辖区的人口趋势,突出问题最严重的地区。报告显示,许多领土的社会人口安全受到人口迅速减少的威胁- -每年减少2%以上。从中期来看,这些领土的人口可能几乎完全消失。这个过程的组成部分被定义为人口的自然流动或导致人口减少的迁移。图中显示了近年来俄罗斯整体人口的变化,包括2013 - 2015年的自然人口增长,平均预期寿命的逐渐增加等。但总的来说,过去几十年的人口危机仍在继续,从与其他接近俄罗斯的国家在人口构成或经济发展水平方面的比较来看。根据2018年俄罗斯人口下降的初步数据,假设目前的趋势继续下去,在未来几年,危机将变得更加严重。结论是,远东联邦区各城市的人口正在以最快的速度下降,这与俄罗斯中长期优先发展远东地区的社会经济发展战略背道而驰。建议不仅在联邦区和俄罗斯联邦主体一级,而且在区域内一级制定人口发展方案。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Differentiation of Russian Territories according to the Population Trends at the Municipal Level
The subject of the research is territorial differences in population dynamics at the levels of municipalities, Russian federal subjects and federal districts. The purpose of the research was to analyze the population trends in urban districts and municipal regions of Russia in recent years highlighting the most problem areas. It is revealed that the socio-demographic security of many territories is threatened by a rapid decline in the population — by more than 2% annually. Already in the medium term, such territories may almost completely lose their population. The components of this process are defined — natural movement of population or migration leading to depopulation. The population changes in Russia as a whole in recent years are shown, including natural population growth in 2013– 2015, gradual increase in the average life expectancy, etc. But in general, the demographic crisis of the last decades is continuing as follows from the comparison with other countries close to Russia in terms of the population make-up or economic development level. In the coming years, assuming the current trends remain, the crisis will become more acute according to the preliminary data on the population decline in Russia in 2018. It is concluded that the population of the municipalities of the Far Eastern Federal District is declining at the fastest rates, which runs counter to the socio-economic development strategy of Russia giving priority specifically to the Far East of the country in the medium and long terms. It is proposed to set up programs of demographic development not only at the level of federal districts and Russian Federation subjects but also at the intraregional level.
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