{"title":"寻找土耳其货币政策的可信度:来自结构性VAR分析的证据","authors":"Buket Alkan","doi":"10.1453/JEPE.V6I1.1851","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. A relationship between the macro shocks and the long-term inflation expectations leads to questioning the credibility of a central bank. This paper investigates the credibility of the Central Bank of Turkey by analyzing the anchoring effect of the long-term inflation expectations by using the uncertainty indicator. We conduct the analysis with the structural VAR method using survey-based inflation expectations data as well as economic uncertainty index data developed for the Turkish economy. Our results provided evidence in favor of the existing de-anchoring process and imply that the monetary policy is not fully credible in Turkey during the period under investigation. Keywords. Inflation expectations, Structural VAR, Credibility, Anchoring, The Turkish economy, Uncertainty. JEL. E52, E58.","PeriodicalId":432468,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economics and Political Economy","volume":"288 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2019-03-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Searching for the credibility of monetary policy in Turkey: Evidence from structural VAR analysis\",\"authors\":\"Buket Alkan\",\"doi\":\"10.1453/JEPE.V6I1.1851\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Abstract. A relationship between the macro shocks and the long-term inflation expectations leads to questioning the credibility of a central bank. This paper investigates the credibility of the Central Bank of Turkey by analyzing the anchoring effect of the long-term inflation expectations by using the uncertainty indicator. We conduct the analysis with the structural VAR method using survey-based inflation expectations data as well as economic uncertainty index data developed for the Turkish economy. Our results provided evidence in favor of the existing de-anchoring process and imply that the monetary policy is not fully credible in Turkey during the period under investigation. Keywords. Inflation expectations, Structural VAR, Credibility, Anchoring, The Turkish economy, Uncertainty. JEL. E52, E58.\",\"PeriodicalId\":432468,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Journal of Economics and Political Economy\",\"volume\":\"288 1\",\"pages\":\"0\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2019-03-11\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Journal of Economics and Political Economy\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1453/JEPE.V6I1.1851\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Economics and Political Economy","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1453/JEPE.V6I1.1851","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
Searching for the credibility of monetary policy in Turkey: Evidence from structural VAR analysis
Abstract. A relationship between the macro shocks and the long-term inflation expectations leads to questioning the credibility of a central bank. This paper investigates the credibility of the Central Bank of Turkey by analyzing the anchoring effect of the long-term inflation expectations by using the uncertainty indicator. We conduct the analysis with the structural VAR method using survey-based inflation expectations data as well as economic uncertainty index data developed for the Turkish economy. Our results provided evidence in favor of the existing de-anchoring process and imply that the monetary policy is not fully credible in Turkey during the period under investigation. Keywords. Inflation expectations, Structural VAR, Credibility, Anchoring, The Turkish economy, Uncertainty. JEL. E52, E58.