寻找土耳其货币政策的可信度:来自结构性VAR分析的证据

Buket Alkan
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引用次数: 0

摘要

摘要宏观冲击与长期通胀预期之间的关系导致对央行可信度的质疑。本文采用不确定性指标分析土耳其央行长期通胀预期的锚定效应,考察土耳其央行的公信力。我们使用基于调查的通胀预期数据以及为土耳其经济开发的经济不确定性指数数据,采用结构性VAR方法进行分析。我们的研究结果为支持现有的去锚定过程提供了证据,并暗示在调查期间,土耳其的货币政策并不完全可信。关键词。通胀预期,结构性VAR,信用,锚定,土耳其经济,不确定性。冻胶。E52 E58。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Searching for the credibility of monetary policy in Turkey: Evidence from structural VAR analysis
Abstract. A relationship between the macro shocks and the long-term inflation expectations leads to questioning the credibility of a central bank. This paper investigates the credibility of the Central Bank of Turkey by analyzing the anchoring effect of the long-term inflation expectations by using the uncertainty indicator. We conduct the analysis with the structural VAR method using survey-based inflation expectations data as well as economic uncertainty index data developed for the Turkish economy. Our results provided evidence in favor of the existing de-anchoring process and imply that the monetary policy is not fully credible in Turkey during the period under investigation. Keywords. Inflation expectations, Structural VAR, Credibility, Anchoring, The Turkish economy, Uncertainty. JEL. E52, E58.
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