考虑到经济模型中对排放的环境限制能源消耗的长期预测(审查出版物)

N. Maistrenko
{"title":"考虑到经济模型中对排放的环境限制能源消耗的长期预测(审查出版物)","authors":"N. Maistrenko","doi":"10.15407/srenergy2023.03.085","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"An overview of existing methodological approaches for long-term forecasting of energy consumption at various hierarchical levels of economic structure (in individual sections, sections, groups, classes, and industries or services) is provided for the development of mathematical dependencies for accounting for restrictions on emissions of greenhouse gas and air pollutants in further work. These approaches will complement the system of mathematical models for long-term forecasting of energy consumption in the country's economy, which were previously used at General Energy Institute of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine. It is proposed to use mutually agreed mathematical models of three types to study the long-term development and functioning of energy consumption: models of the life cycle of the main technological facilities at the enterprise level, simulation models of the formation of transit flows of energy resources through the territory of Ukraine and optimization models for predicting the development of a certain section (industry) of the economy, which are generally applied in the energy supply system in the country. Also, for energy-intensive sections of the economy as electricity consumers, it is necessary to take into account: the manufacturer of products that has a reference indicator of emissions, with or without interchangeability of electricity and fuel, calculates direct emissions from production plus indirect emissions from consumed electricity. In other cases, they are calculated on the basis of a reference indicator of emissions for fuel or technological processes, and (or) adjusted for the ratio of direct emissions to the sum of direct and indirect emissions. Keywords: fuel and energy resources, modeling, forecasting, electricity consumption, greenhouse gases.","PeriodicalId":307644,"journal":{"name":"System Research in Energy","volume":"38 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2023-08-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Taking into account environmental constraints on emissions in economic models long-term forecasting of energy consumption (review of publications)\",\"authors\":\"N. Maistrenko\",\"doi\":\"10.15407/srenergy2023.03.085\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"An overview of existing methodological approaches for long-term forecasting of energy consumption at various hierarchical levels of economic structure (in individual sections, sections, groups, classes, and industries or services) is provided for the development of mathematical dependencies for accounting for restrictions on emissions of greenhouse gas and air pollutants in further work. These approaches will complement the system of mathematical models for long-term forecasting of energy consumption in the country's economy, which were previously used at General Energy Institute of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine. It is proposed to use mutually agreed mathematical models of three types to study the long-term development and functioning of energy consumption: models of the life cycle of the main technological facilities at the enterprise level, simulation models of the formation of transit flows of energy resources through the territory of Ukraine and optimization models for predicting the development of a certain section (industry) of the economy, which are generally applied in the energy supply system in the country. Also, for energy-intensive sections of the economy as electricity consumers, it is necessary to take into account: the manufacturer of products that has a reference indicator of emissions, with or without interchangeability of electricity and fuel, calculates direct emissions from production plus indirect emissions from consumed electricity. In other cases, they are calculated on the basis of a reference indicator of emissions for fuel or technological processes, and (or) adjusted for the ratio of direct emissions to the sum of direct and indirect emissions. Keywords: fuel and energy resources, modeling, forecasting, electricity consumption, greenhouse gases.\",\"PeriodicalId\":307644,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"System Research in Energy\",\"volume\":\"38 1\",\"pages\":\"0\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2023-08-25\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"System Research in Energy\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.15407/srenergy2023.03.085\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"System Research in Energy","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.15407/srenergy2023.03.085","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0

摘要

本文概述了在经济结构的各个层次(个别部门、部门、集团、类别和工业或服务)长期预测能源消耗的现有方法,以便在进一步的工作中发展用于计算温室气体和空气污染物排放限制的数学依赖关系。这些方法将补充以前在乌克兰国家科学院总能源研究所使用的用于长期预测该国经济能源消耗的数学模型系统。建议采用三种相互认可的数学模型来研究能源消费的长期发展和功能:企业层面的主要技术设施生命周期模型,能源资源过境流通过乌克兰领土形成的仿真模型以及预测某一经济部门(行业)发展的优化模型,这些模型普遍应用于该国的能源供应系统。此外,对于作为电力消费者的能源密集型经济部门,有必要考虑到:具有排放参考指标的产品制造商,无论是否具有电力和燃料的互换性,都要计算生产的直接排放加上消耗电力的间接排放。在其他情况下,它们是根据燃料或技术过程排放的参考指标计算的,并且(或)根据直接排放与直接和间接排放之和的比率进行调整。关键词:燃料与能源,建模,预测,电力消耗,温室气体。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Taking into account environmental constraints on emissions in economic models long-term forecasting of energy consumption (review of publications)
An overview of existing methodological approaches for long-term forecasting of energy consumption at various hierarchical levels of economic structure (in individual sections, sections, groups, classes, and industries or services) is provided for the development of mathematical dependencies for accounting for restrictions on emissions of greenhouse gas and air pollutants in further work. These approaches will complement the system of mathematical models for long-term forecasting of energy consumption in the country's economy, which were previously used at General Energy Institute of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine. It is proposed to use mutually agreed mathematical models of three types to study the long-term development and functioning of energy consumption: models of the life cycle of the main technological facilities at the enterprise level, simulation models of the formation of transit flows of energy resources through the territory of Ukraine and optimization models for predicting the development of a certain section (industry) of the economy, which are generally applied in the energy supply system in the country. Also, for energy-intensive sections of the economy as electricity consumers, it is necessary to take into account: the manufacturer of products that has a reference indicator of emissions, with or without interchangeability of electricity and fuel, calculates direct emissions from production plus indirect emissions from consumed electricity. In other cases, they are calculated on the basis of a reference indicator of emissions for fuel or technological processes, and (or) adjusted for the ratio of direct emissions to the sum of direct and indirect emissions. Keywords: fuel and energy resources, modeling, forecasting, electricity consumption, greenhouse gases.
求助全文
通过发布文献求助,成功后即可免费获取论文全文。 去求助
来源期刊
自引率
0.00%
发文量
0
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
确定
请完成安全验证×
copy
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
右上角分享
点击右上角分享
0
联系我们:info@booksci.cn Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。 Copyright © 2023 布克学术 All rights reserved.
京ICP备2023020795号-1
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术官方微信