为宏观经济动态的主要组成部分提供互补

O. Bandura
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引用次数: 0

摘要

我们提出了一种新的方式来提供主要宏观经济指标-经济增长,就业和通货膨胀的互补。世界主要中央银行货币政策的例子表明,虽然官方上银行主要有一个目的任务,即通货膨胀(除了美国,中央银行官方控制通货膨胀和就业),但非官方上他们试图控制所有三个主要的宏观经济价值,以提供它们的互补性。如果没有一种经济模型将三个综合指标和决定三个主要指标的众多中间指标联系起来,就很难提供三个主要宏观经济指标的互补性。最后,任何调节工具的选择都取决于监管者选择的模型,以提供综合值与中间指标之间的互连。通过分析世界主要央行的货币政策历史,我们揭示了其监管工具在经济增长、就业和通胀方面的效率变化。它从最佳时间点的最高效率到最低效率不等,这就需要更换一个新的调节工具,以便在最终指标和中间指标之间提供更稳定和可预测的因果关系。在作者的宏观经济动力学cmi模型的基础上,我们建立了将三个主要的宏观经济价值与众多中间指标联系起来的公式。它使我们能够仅以一个综合指标(累积市场缺陷)为目标,同时控制经济增长、就业和通货膨胀。为此目的,我们可以选择所有可能的货币政策工具和其他政策工具(财政、反垄断、创新等)。此外,我们还可以控制所应用的调控工具对主要宏观经济指标的作用效率,从而确定调控工具最优效率的定量标准。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Providing complimentarity for the main components of macroeconomic dynamics
We propose a new way to provide complementarities of main macroeconomic indicators — economic growth, employment and inflation. It is shown at the example of monetary policy of world’s main central banks that, while officially the banks mainly have one purpose mandate, which is inflation (except of the U.S. where the central bank are officially to control both inflation and employment, unofficially they try to control all three main macroeconomic values, to provide their complementarities. It is difficult to provide complementarities of three main macroeconomic indicators in the absence of an economic model that connects both the three integrated indicators, and numerous intermediate ones, which determine each of the three main indicators. Finally, choice of any regulation instrument is determined by the model chosen by regulator to provide interconnection between integrated values and intermediate indicators. Analyzing the history of monetary policy for world’s main central banks, we revealed changing efficiency for their regulation instruments in terms of their effect on economic growth, employment and inflation. It varies from maximum efficiency in the optimum point in time to minimum efficiency, which requires a change of the regulation instrument for a new one to provide a more stable and forecastable cause-result connection between final and intermediate indicators. At the base of author’s CMI-model of macroeconomic dynamics we grounded the formula that connects as three main macroeconomic values so numerous intermediate indicators. It allows us, targeting only one integrated indicator (cumulative market imperfections) to control economic growth, employment and inflation at the same time. For that purpose we can chose all possible instruments both of monetary policy and of other policies (fiscal, antitrust, innovation ones etc.). Besides, we would be able to control efficiency of the action of the applied regulation instruments on the main macroeconomic indicators to determine the quantitative criterion of optimum efficiency for regulation instruments.
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