智能电网中风电数据的准确预测分析

M. Ashraf, Asif Gulraiz, S. S. Zaidi, Farhana Ashraf, B. Khan
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引用次数: 1

摘要

可再生能源在智能电网系统中的应用使机组承诺问题变得更加复杂和加速。风能是可再生能源的主要贡献者之一,由于风能的不可预测性,在不同的地方,一天中不同时间的需求是可变的。因此,尽可能准确地预测风力是至关重要的,因为这不仅有助于研究人员优化电网模型,而且还将在管理需求和供应(ED)问题上发挥关键作用。本文对巴基斯坦卡拉奇市的实时风数据进行了详细的研究,并找到了可以进一步用于预测算法的多项式近似(多项式回归)。此外,为了便于理解,还给出了多项式各阶相关残差的R2和范数。多项式回归的局限性,如果所有单独应用于所提出的方案也进行了讨论。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Wind's Data Analysis for its Accurate Prediction in Smart Grid Systems
There already existed the problem of unit commitment that became further complicated and accelerated by the use of renewable energy in smart grid systems. One of the major contributor of renewable energy is wind, because of the unpredictable nature of the wind, at different places the demand is variable at different times of the day. Therefore, it is crucial to predict wind as accurately as possible, as this will not only help researchers to optimize grid models but will also play a key role in managing demand and supply (ED)issues. This paper investigates real time wind's data for the city of Karachi Pakistan in detail, and finds approximation of polynomial (polynomial regression) that can be further used in prediction algorithms. Furthermore, R2 and norm of residual associated with each degree of polynomial is also shown for clear understanding.Limitation of polynomial regression, if all alone applied in the proposed scenario is also discussed.
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