决定印度贸易平衡的因素

Yusra Anees
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文旨在确定过去40年(1981-2019)影响印度贸易平衡(BoT)的主要因素。本文采用回归分析的OLS方法分析了印度贸易平衡及其决定因素之间的关系。研究发现,影响印度贸易平衡的主要因素有四个:实际有效汇率(REER)、全球原油价格的实际价值、印度的私人投资和印度的人均GDP。全球油价与印度贸易平衡呈显著负相关。投资、REER和人均GDP与印度贸易平衡呈显著正相关。此外,印度的贸易平衡在2011年和2017年这两年一直非常低,主要原因分别是全球金融危机和全球经济衰退。这些年份是由回归模型中的虚拟变量捕获的。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
FACTORS DETERMINING BALANCE OF TRADE IN INDIA
This paper aims to determine the major factors influencing Balance of Trade (BoT) of India over the last 40 years (1981-2019). The OLS method of regression analysis has been used in the paper to analyse the relationship between balance of trade of India and its determinants. It is found that four main factors influence balance of trade in India-Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER), real value of global crude oil prices, private investment in India, and GDP per capita of India. Global oil prices have a significant negative relationship with India’s trade balance. Investment, REER and GDP per capita have a significant positive relationship with India’s trade balance. Furthermore, trade balance of India has been exceptionally low in two years - 2011 and 2017 - mainly due to global financial crisis and global recession respectively. These years are captured by dummy variables in the regression model.
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