Comparative analysis of university matriculation examination and post university matriculation examination admission models in Lagos State University

There have been issues about the predictive power of the University Matriculation Examination (UME) and most Nigerian universities now conduct an additional screening examination called the post-UME. Some have reported that post-UME is a better predictor of students’ performances than the UME while others have the contrary. Hence, it is still not clear whether post-UME is better than UME. To examine this issue further, the researchers modelled association between entrance exam and academic performance measured by Cumulative Grade Point Average (CGPA) of 381 students who were admitted to eight undergraduate programmes at Lagos State University. Regression analysis showed that UME (standardized β: first year = -0.06, p = 0.214; final year = -0.06, p = 0.217) and General Certificate Ordinary Level, O/L (β: first year = 0.03, p =0.591; final year = 0.02, p = 0.727) were not significantly related to CGPA. However post-UME was significantly associated with CGPA (β: first year = 0.36, p < 0.001; final year = 0.37, p<0.001). Post-UME explained 12.75% and 13.58% variations in the first and final year CGPA respectively. The model that included both post-UME and O/L in the same model showed that they jointly explained 13.07% and 13.81% variations in the first and final year performances respectively Similar results were obtained when UME was added to the model. It was found that post-UME is a better predictor of students’ performances than UME, and the combined O/L and post-UME is no different from the combined O/L, UME and post-UME or post-UME only. The results suggest  that admission criteria should be based largely on post-UME.