{"title":"太阳能热发电系统动力学模型","authors":"Bo Xu, Wenbao Hu, Mengxuan Lv, Xiaoqing Yan","doi":"10.1109/ICPST56889.2023.10165309","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Solar thermal power generation has attracted worldwide attention due to its advantages such as continuous and stable power generation and easy complementary with other renewable energy. Development of solar thermal power generation is important for China’s energy transition. Therefore, we established a system dynamics model to predict the development trend of solar thermal power generation. As electricity demand can influence the development of solar thermal power, electricity demand forecasting is also considered. We simulated the development of solar thermal power generation in a certain region. The simulation results shows that, in the base scenario, the cumulative installed-capacity of solar thermal power generation will reach 2.68 and 19.7 million kilowatts in 2030 and 2060, respectively. Among all of the influencing factors, the effect of electricity prices is more obvious.","PeriodicalId":231392,"journal":{"name":"2023 IEEE International Conference on Power Science and Technology (ICPST)","volume":"42 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2023-05-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"A System Dynamics Model for Solar Thermal Power\",\"authors\":\"Bo Xu, Wenbao Hu, Mengxuan Lv, Xiaoqing Yan\",\"doi\":\"10.1109/ICPST56889.2023.10165309\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Solar thermal power generation has attracted worldwide attention due to its advantages such as continuous and stable power generation and easy complementary with other renewable energy. Development of solar thermal power generation is important for China’s energy transition. Therefore, we established a system dynamics model to predict the development trend of solar thermal power generation. As electricity demand can influence the development of solar thermal power, electricity demand forecasting is also considered. We simulated the development of solar thermal power generation in a certain region. The simulation results shows that, in the base scenario, the cumulative installed-capacity of solar thermal power generation will reach 2.68 and 19.7 million kilowatts in 2030 and 2060, respectively. Among all of the influencing factors, the effect of electricity prices is more obvious.\",\"PeriodicalId\":231392,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"2023 IEEE International Conference on Power Science and Technology (ICPST)\",\"volume\":\"42 1\",\"pages\":\"0\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2023-05-05\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"2023 IEEE International Conference on Power Science and Technology (ICPST)\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1109/ICPST56889.2023.10165309\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"2023 IEEE International Conference on Power Science and Technology (ICPST)","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1109/ICPST56889.2023.10165309","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
Solar thermal power generation has attracted worldwide attention due to its advantages such as continuous and stable power generation and easy complementary with other renewable energy. Development of solar thermal power generation is important for China’s energy transition. Therefore, we established a system dynamics model to predict the development trend of solar thermal power generation. As electricity demand can influence the development of solar thermal power, electricity demand forecasting is also considered. We simulated the development of solar thermal power generation in a certain region. The simulation results shows that, in the base scenario, the cumulative installed-capacity of solar thermal power generation will reach 2.68 and 19.7 million kilowatts in 2030 and 2060, respectively. Among all of the influencing factors, the effect of electricity prices is more obvious.
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