黎巴嫩:政治危机进入新阶段

Natalia M. Gorbunova
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引用次数: 0

摘要

黎巴嫩近年来发生的事件反映了该国政治和社会生活的重要变化。在这方面,重要的是要了解是什么原因造成了黎巴嫩社会危机的新恶化。也许这不再仅仅是一场危机。在贝鲁特港口发生的硝石爆炸,摧毁了半个首都,说明了什么?走上城市街头的黎巴嫩人要求什么改革?黎巴嫩政治机构为其公民提供了什么?它能否改变该国长期建立的传统政府和治理制度,以克服其经济和社会发展的主要障碍?从理论上讲,黎巴嫩完全可以像过去那样成为一个现代化、繁荣的国家。但是黎巴嫩的精英们能够与社会签订新的契约吗?黎巴嫩人的和平要求和抗议发展成为与国家安全部队的直接对抗。这些抗议活动的激进化迫使当局满足相当一部分人,主要是年轻人的一些要求。然而,主要要求- -新的议会和总统选举,其条件是所有候选人,不论其宗教和党派归属- -甚至没有在统治精英中讨论过。黎巴嫩最近发生的事件令人信服地表明,这个中东小国在该地区力量政治联盟中的作用和意义远远超过它的大小,并不无理由地引起主要国际参与者的最密切注意。在中东争取影响力的斗争尤其取决于黎巴嫩共和国将如何以及在什么时间范围内恢复其经济和社会各部门的和谐。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
LEBANON: A NEW PHASE OF THE POLITICAL CRISIS
The events of recent years in Lebanon reflect important changes in the country’s political and social life. In this regard, it is important to understand what caused the new aggravation of the crisis in Lebanese society. Perhaps this is no longer just a crisis. What does the saltpeter explosion in the port of Beirut, which destroyed half of the capital, show? What reforms are demanded by the Lebanese who have taken to the streets of cities? What does the Lebanese political establishment offer its citizens and can it transform the country’s long-established traditional system of government and governance in order to overcome the main obstacles to its economic and social development? In theory, Lebanon could well become a modern, prosperous country it was in the past. But will the Lebanese elite be able to sign a new contract with society? Peaceful demands and protests of the Lebanese grew into direct confrontation with the security forces of the state. The radicalization of these protests forced the authorities to satisfy some of the demands of a significant part of the population, primarily young people. However, the main requirements — new parliamentary and presidential elections with the condition of admission to them of all candidates, regardless of their religious and party affiliation — were not even discussed in the ruling elite. Recent events in Lebanon have convincingly shown that the role and significance of this small Middle Eastern state in the political alignment of forces in the region far exceeds its size and is not without reason attracting the closest attention of the main international players. The struggle for influence in the Middle East depends not least on how and in what time frame the Lebanese Republic will restore its economy and the harmony of all sectors of society.
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