Hybrid Planning Tool for Solar and Battery Systems in Ontario

There is increasing momentum for behind-the-meter renewable generation and storage installations due to an increased focus on limiting the environmental impact of electricity generation. Local energy policy influences the sizing and financial viability of these systems while also serving to promote the smart uptake of these technologies on the electricity grid. This paper proposes a methodology for optimal infrastructure sizing of small-scale solar photovoltaic generation and battery energy storage technologies required to become grid neutral under a net metering energy contract. A robust linear programming model is proposed, and probabilistic robustness guarantees are provided by manipulating the magnitude and frequency of uncertainty realizations using a budget of uncertainty approach. A practical test case is performed in Toronto, Ontario, and the results reveal that a 99% robustness guarantee requires additional infrastructure capital costs of $6,700 (26%) over the purely deterministic scenario investment of $25,700. Furthermore, it is shown that the net metering policy does not provide sufficient financial inventive to Ontario homeowners, and project costs exceed benefits by between $4,400 and $9,200 depending on robustness. Finally, Ontario net metering policy in its current form does not incentivize energy storage, and instead relies on the electricity grid as a free and lossless storage device—a practice which is likely unsustainable. Future work is available to enhance the existing methodology or leverage the proposed methodology for application to new fields of research.