Towards a Turbine Selection Method with Uncertainty Reduction and Efficiency Optimization

This paper aims to present a metric that allows turbine selection with reduced uncertainty from those models that are suitable to a specific wind distribution. A Weibull model is examined and calculated with a modified maximum likelihood method approach. Simulation case studies on nineteen turbines have been validated for the probability of wind speeds in the rated region, cut-out regions, and unrated region, in addition to other simulation conditions such as annual energy production and capacity factor. Based on the wind distribution, selected turbines have been evaluated for optimal, sufficient, and insufficient rated wind speeds. Simulation results show higher rated turbines can under-perform those of lower rated capacities. Efficiency and production correlate closely with optimization of rated wind speeds.