Prediction of Success in a Motor Skill on the Basis of Early Learning Achievement

Abstract Forty college women learned a ball juggling task during 27 practice periods (totaling 2,025 trials) spaced over 9 weeks. Learning scores (gains) were moderately reliable (r=.80). They were not significantly related to initial scores. However, appreciable correlations, ranging from .32 to .59, were found between the criterion (performance score on the 27th day) and cumulated learning scores. Prediction of the criterion by multiple correlations employing initial score and the cumulated learning score through the 4th, 6th, 11th, 15th and 19th practice day ranged from R=.76 to R=.96. A two-component exponential equation was effective in describing the form of the learning curve.