El-nino对水库容量的影响(以龙目岛Batujai大坝为例)

I. Yasa, M. Bisri, M. Solichin, U. Andawayanti
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引用次数: 0

摘要

厄尔尼诺现象发生于1952年至2016年,其类型为弱、中、强和极强。厄尔尼诺现象对经济、社会、工业和农业的各个方面都有重大影响。水资源的数量减少,例如在水库中,水库入水量变得很小,出水量变得很高。如果发生强烈的厄尔尼诺现象,一些水库就会干涸。本研究的目的是调查在厄尔尼诺现象发生时水库的亏损能力。本文分析的数据是半个月水库的体积,特别是在厄尔尼诺事件发生时。频率亏缺概率的分析采用威布尔概率和Log Pearson III型分布。结果表明,水库水量在很长一段时间内显著减少。水库容量从未达到最大水位,并持续了近一年。弱El-Nino、中等El-Nino和极强El-Nino分别为16.01 × 10 6 m³、18.64 × 10 6 m³和21.7 × 10 3 m³。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
El-nino effect on reservoir volumetric (A case study of the Batujai Dam on the island of Lombok)
El-Nino has been occurred from 1952 to 2016 with the types of weak, medium, strong and very strong. The event of El-Nino has significant impact on all aspects of economy, social, industry and agriculture. There is a decrease in the quantity of water resources such as in the reservoir where the reservoir inflow becomes very small and the water outflow becomes high. At the event of very strong El-Nino is occurred some of the reservoirs will dry. The aim of the research is to investigate the deficit capacity of the reservoir in the event of El-Nino. The data analyzed in this article were the volume of the half-month reservoir, especially in the event of El-Nino events. The analysis of frequency deficit probability was using Weibull probability and Log Pearson Type III distribution. The results show significant decrease in reservoir water volume over a very long-time period. The reservoir volume never reached maximum water level and persists for almost one year. The deficit of reservoir volumes reached was 16,01x10 6 m 3 , 18.64x10 6 m 3 , and 21,07x10 3 m 3 for weak, moderate, and very strong El-Nino, respectively.
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