模拟气象要素时间序列的随机模式

А. А. Butsko, А. А. Kirukhin, V. Pashynski, А. I. Rodzkin
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文介绍了模拟时间气象序列的随机模型(随机天气发生器)的发展结果。在蒙特卡罗方法的基础上,对最高和最低气温、太阳辐射、风速、相对湿度、降水量和降水强度等要素进行了离散度为一天的人工气象序列的建模。在建立随机模型时,使用了国家机构«共和国水文气象中心»对明斯克OMN的2000-2020年期间的地面网络观测(ferm = 53.92°,Z = 27.63°)。所得的模拟气象序列在统计上与实际序列相同。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
STOCHASTIC MODEL FOR SIMULATING TIME SERIES OF METEOROLOGICAL ELEMENTS
The article presents the results of the development of a stochastic model for simulating time meteorological series (stochastic weather generator). Modeling of artificial meteorological series with a discreteness of one day is performed on the basis of the Monte Carlo method for the following elements: maximum and minimum air temperature, solar radiation, wind speed, relative humidity, amount and intensity of precipitation. When developing the stochastic model, the ground-level network observations of the State Institution «Republican Hydrometeorological Center» for the Minsk OMN (ф = 53.92°, Z = 27.63°) obtained for the period from 2000-2020 were used. The resulting simulated meteorological series are statistically identical to the actual series.
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