Optimal Vaccine Allocation: Modelling Population Interaction and Administrative Constraints

The COVID-19 pandemic and associated vaccine shortages in many places have caused immense suffering. This paper proposes a theoretical framework for finding the optimal vaccine allocation among interconnected populations. In particular, the analysis focuses on modelling how interaction and administrative constraints affect the optimal vaccine allocation. The proposed framework suggests that both factors affect the optimal vaccine allocation differently, especially when the shortage of vaccines is severe. Four hypotheses are put forward, which should be verified empirically in order to falsify the plausibility of the proposed theoretical framework.