{"title":"上海证券交易所基本面的市场定价:基于自适应预期的股利贴现模型的证据","authors":"Mingyang Li, Linlin Niu, Andrew Pua","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3762516","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"We study market pricing of fundamentals at the Shanghai Stock Exchange, incorporating possible irrational pricing behavior with adaptive expectation. Using panel data of listed stocks to overcome the limited information in aggregate time series data, we estimated key parameters of the price elasticity of dividends and the expectation adjustment based on a linear dynamic panel data model. We use a major subset of stocks with stationary real prices and cash flows and apply methods that correct for incidental parameter bias. The resulting price elasticity of dividends is about 0.46 (0.35) based on annual (quarterly) data, which is sizable given high PD (PE) ratios in the market. Our results imply that slow expectation adjustment contributes to “bubble-like” price patterns. We also show prices significantly react to macro information related to the discount rate, but these effects are very sensitive to the information set used.","PeriodicalId":236490,"journal":{"name":"Emerging Markets Economics: Firm Behavior & Microeconomic Issues eJournal","volume":"44 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2020-12-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Market Pricing of Fundamentals at the Shanghai Stock Exchange: Evidence from a Dividend Discount Model with Adaptive Expectations\",\"authors\":\"Mingyang Li, Linlin Niu, Andrew Pua\",\"doi\":\"10.2139/ssrn.3762516\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"We study market pricing of fundamentals at the Shanghai Stock Exchange, incorporating possible irrational pricing behavior with adaptive expectation. Using panel data of listed stocks to overcome the limited information in aggregate time series data, we estimated key parameters of the price elasticity of dividends and the expectation adjustment based on a linear dynamic panel data model. We use a major subset of stocks with stationary real prices and cash flows and apply methods that correct for incidental parameter bias. The resulting price elasticity of dividends is about 0.46 (0.35) based on annual (quarterly) data, which is sizable given high PD (PE) ratios in the market. Our results imply that slow expectation adjustment contributes to “bubble-like” price patterns. We also show prices significantly react to macro information related to the discount rate, but these effects are very sensitive to the information set used.\",\"PeriodicalId\":236490,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Emerging Markets Economics: Firm Behavior & Microeconomic Issues eJournal\",\"volume\":\"44 1\",\"pages\":\"0\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2020-12-30\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Emerging Markets Economics: Firm Behavior & Microeconomic Issues eJournal\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3762516\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Emerging Markets Economics: Firm Behavior & Microeconomic Issues eJournal","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3762516","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
Market Pricing of Fundamentals at the Shanghai Stock Exchange: Evidence from a Dividend Discount Model with Adaptive Expectations
We study market pricing of fundamentals at the Shanghai Stock Exchange, incorporating possible irrational pricing behavior with adaptive expectation. Using panel data of listed stocks to overcome the limited information in aggregate time series data, we estimated key parameters of the price elasticity of dividends and the expectation adjustment based on a linear dynamic panel data model. We use a major subset of stocks with stationary real prices and cash flows and apply methods that correct for incidental parameter bias. The resulting price elasticity of dividends is about 0.46 (0.35) based on annual (quarterly) data, which is sizable given high PD (PE) ratios in the market. Our results imply that slow expectation adjustment contributes to “bubble-like” price patterns. We also show prices significantly react to macro information related to the discount rate, but these effects are very sensitive to the information set used.