斯洛伐克气候变化条件下西瓜种植面积的变化

Martin Minařík, J. Cimo
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摘要

气候变化的威胁及其负面后果目前是一个非常严重和紧迫的问题。气候变化最明显的表现无疑是全球变暖。较高的气温已经影响了欧洲大部分地区植物生长季节的长度。谷物的开花和成熟比平常早了几天。预计这些变化将在许多地区继续下去。生长季节和无霜期的延长通常会导致北欧农业生产生产率的提高。更高的温度和更长的生长季节使新作物得以生长。另一方面,极端高温以及降雨量和水量的减少预计会降低作物产量。由于极端高温的影响,预计年作物产量将出现较大波动。这种极端高温还与病虫害发病率的增加有关。在本文中,我们重点研究了1961-2020年西瓜种植面积的变化,并对2050年、2075年和2100年进行了预测。分析本身是基于生长季节的长度。从结果中可以清楚地看出,种植所分析作物的可能性区域是如何变化的,以及未来区域变化的假设是什么。各波段的变化与平均温度的变化有关。结果表明,随着气候变化,种植所分析作物的可能性正在向更高的海拔地区转移。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
CHANGE IN THE AREA OF CULTIVATION OF WATERMELON (CITRULLUS LANATUS) UNDER THE CONDITIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN SLOVAKIA
The threat of climate change and its negative consequences is currently a very serious and immediate problem. The most observable manifestation of climate change is undoubtedly global warming. The higher air temperature has already affected the length of the growing season in a large part of Europe. Flowering and ripening of cereals begin a few days earlier than was usual. These changes are expected to continue in many regions. The extension of the growing season and the frost-free period can generally lead to an increase in the productivity of agricultural production in Northern Europe. Higher temperatures and longer growing seasons allow new crops to be grown. On the other hand, extreme heat and a decrease in rainfall and water availability are expected to reduce crop productivity. Higher fluctuations in annual crop yields are expected due to the influence of extreme heat. This extreme heat is also associated with an increased incidence of pests and diseases. In the presented work, we focus on the changes in the areas of watermelon (Citrullus lanatus) cultivation in the years 1961-2020 with predictions for the horizons of 2050, 2075, 2100. The analysis itself was based on the length of the growing season. It is clear from the results how the areas of the possibility of growing the analyzed crop are changing, and what will be the assumption of changes in areas in the future. The change of individual bands changes in connection with the change of average temperatures. The results show how the possibilities of growing the analyzed crop are shifting to higher altitudes precisely in connection with climate change.
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