Modeling inpatient cases of COVID-19 in Jakarta using pulse function intervention analysis approach

Coronavirus Disease-19 (Covid-19) is an epidemic that affects all segments of human life. Covid-19 has caused all countries to feel the impact of this pandemic, including Indonesia, especially Jakarta as the first city to become the center of the spread of the virus in this country. Various attempts have been made, but the number of victims continues to increase rapidly. As a result, some Covid-19 patients can only isolate independently, due to the limited number of health facilities. This is the background for research on inpatient case modelling of Covid-19 in Jakarta. One method of approach that can be used in modelling is intervention analysis. Intervention analysis is a time series analysis caused by events out of control so that it can affect stationarity in time series data. The data used in this study is the data of inpatient Covid-19 Jakarta in the form ofdaily data obtained from Jakarta Provincial Health Office from 19 July 2020 to 25 November 2020. Based on the results of the research that has been carried out, it is known that the data has decreased drastically in one time, that is the 69th data which is a pulse function intervention. The results of this research obtained that the best intervention model is ARIMA (0,2,l)with order b = 0, s = 0, r = 2.1t results obtained a value ofRMSE 790.33. © 2022 American Institute of Physics Inc.. All rights reserved.