European Financial Market Integration and German Cross Border Portfolio Flows

The paper analyzes the effect of European financial integration, especially of the EMU, on gross portfolio flows between Germany and 47 countries from 1987 to 2002. A gravity model of asset trade a la Martin and Rey (2004) is estimated. The following results are found: (1) There is substantially more portfolio trade between Germany and countries also participating in stage one and three of the EMU. More specifically: Since 2001 cross border portfolio flows between Germany and EMU countries are significantly larger compared to flows between Germany and Denmark, the UK, and Sweden which are part of the EU-15 but not of the Euro area. (2) Developments intertwined with the formation of the EMU such as changes in exchange rate volatility, financial market development and increased real economic integration among EMU countries are not able to account for this effect. (3) The EMU effect on gross portfolio flows is larger for transacting countries with more developed banking and equity markets and for country pairs with more correlated business cycles.