社会预测:印度业务流程外包行业的发展模式

Prabhakar
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究是社会预测的一个应用。从更广泛的角度来看,未来是可以预测的吗?答案不是肯定的。如果存在已知或定义为“未来”的东西,那么就可以尝试。“未来”这个词是一个关系术语(Bell, 1973),它可以作为某事的未来来讨论。有可能预测结果吗?答案是不肯定的。预测可以指定决策有效的约束或限制。预测有不同的模式。社会预测在范围和技术上不同于其他模式。最重要的区别在于对独立的或外生的社会学变量的研究,以及对影响其他变量行为的最不精确的研究。在本研究中,本研究试图研究工作和价值优先级个性化等社会学变量,并将其投射到业务流程外包行业的社会框架中。业务流程外包行业是全球增长最快的行业,创造了最多的就业机会(Holman, Batt和Holtgrewe, 2007),印度是该行业的主要参与者。该行业的可变性、新颖性、技术强度、工作强度以及新的社会学、人类学和经济网络在全球化的交叉点为研究提供了具有挑战性的机会。Ferni和Metcalf(1998)在人力资源问题方面进行了开创性的研究,并将该行业称为现代血汗工厂,与21世纪知识工作者的描述相距甚远。在印度,与其他行业相比,同样资格的员工的工资更高。与其他行业相比,该行业的增长速度最高,这表明所有利益相关者都是双赢的。然而,这个行业正面临着世界上最高的流失率,高达40%,员工们抱怨对工作的幻想破灭。新闻发布违反文化规范和改变员工生活方式的行为。在这种情况下,本研究是利用社会预测给出的方法来解决工作流失问题。本研究共分为五章。第一章介绍了业务流程外包产业的起源、定义、发展、人力资源问题,并对过去十年的研究进行了讨论。这是为了理解这个行业不同于信息技术行业以及其他行业的细微差别。它试图描绘印度业务流程外包行业的人力资源挑战,并在此过程中确立了研究的需求、目标和意义。介绍了允许使用折衷方法的社会预测的定义,它与其他类型预测的关系,模型程序和验证过程,并进行了必要的阐述。对2009-2014年BPO行业进行了经济预测、人口预测、技术预测和政治预测。第二章是文献综述,主要有四个目标。首先是提供上下文清晰度,并检查有关工作流失和工作满意度领域的BPO组织的研究,并在此过程中,在文献中建立空白。第二个目标是回答社会预测的需要和社会预测过程的启动。第三个目标是考虑研究的概念模型,第四个目标是提出BPO组织的类型学。研究者认为,社会预测从价值观的研究开始。对价值进行了详细的研究,以澄清定义问题。本文回顾了价值观及其与态度和行为的关系。探讨了其研究的作用范围和必要性。论述了个性化的概念及其在生命历程变化和网络经济时代对研究的重要性。讨论了本研究的一个模型。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Social Forecasting: Evolving a Model for Indian Business Process Outsourcing Industry
The present research is an application of social forecasting. On a broader plank, Can future be forecasted? The answer is not affirmative. If there is something known or defined as ‘the future’ then it can be attempted. The word future is a relational term (Bell, 1973) it can be discussed as the future of something. Is it possible to forecast results? The answer is more not affirmative. Forecasts can specify the constraints or limits within which decisions can be effective. Forecasting has different modes. Social forecasting differs from other modes in its scope and techniques. The most important distinction is study of sociological variables that are independent or exogenous and least precise, which affect the behaviour of other variables. In the present study, an attempt is made to study sociological variables such as individualization of work and value priorities and project them within the social framework of business process outsourcing industry. Business process outsourcing industry is the fastest growing industry creating highest number of jobs across the world (Holman, Batt and Holtgrewe, 2007) and India is a major player in the this sector. The industry’s variability, novelty, technological intensity, work intensity with new sociological, anthropological, and economic networks at the intersection of globalization provide challenging opportunities for research. Ferni and Metcalf (1998) undertook pioneering research with respect to human resources issues and called the industry as modern age sweatshops far from the depiction of knowledge worker of twenty first century. In India, the employees are paid higher salaries compared to other industries for same qualifications. The industry is growing at highest rates compared to other industry sectors, indicating a win-win situation for all stakeholders. However, the industry is facing highest attrition rates in the world to the tune of 40%, with employees complaining disillusionment with jobs. Press publishes violation of cultural codes and changing lifestyles of employees. This context, present study is undertaken to address the issue of job attrition by using methodology given by social forecasting. The study is organized into five chapters. The first chapter introduces the genesis of Business Process Outsourcing Industry, its definition, growth, human resources issues, and discusses research for the past decade. This is to understand the nuances of industry that are different from that of Information technology industry as well as from other industries. It tries to portray human resources challenges of the Indian Business Process Outsourcing Industry and in the process establishes need, objectives, and significance of the study. Social forecasting which permits use of eclectic approach is introduced with definition, its relation with other types of forecasting, model procedure and validation process with required elaboration. Economic forecasting, demographic forecasting technological forecasting and political forecasting is provided for BPO industry for the period 2009-2014. The second chapter deals with literature survey and has four objectives. The first is to provide contextual clarity and examine the research with respect to BPO organizations in the areas relating to job attrition and job satisfaction, and in the process, establishing gaps in the literature. The second objective is to answer the need for social forecasting and initiation of social forecasting process. The third objective is to consider conceptual model for research and the fourth objective is to present typology of BPO organization. As suggested by researchers, social forecasting commence with the study of values. A detailed study of values is undertaken to clarify definitional issues. Values and its relation to attitude and behavior are reviewed. Role scope and need for its study is examined. The concept of individualization and its importance for study in the era of changes in life course and network economies is deliberated. A model for present research is discussed.
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