Social Forecasting: Evolving a Model for Indian Business Process Outsourcing Industry

The present research is an application of social forecasting. On a broader plank, Can future be forecasted? The answer is not affirmative. If there is something known or defined as ‘the future’ then it can be attempted. The word future is a relational term (Bell, 1973) it can be discussed as the future of something. Is it possible to forecast results? The answer is more not affirmative. Forecasts can specify the constraints or limits within which decisions can be effective. Forecasting has different modes. Social forecasting differs from other modes in its scope and techniques. The most important distinction is study of sociological variables that are independent or exogenous and least precise, which affect the behaviour of other variables. In the present study, an attempt is made to study sociological variables such as individualization of work and value priorities and project them within the social framework of business process outsourcing industry. Business process outsourcing industry is the fastest growing industry creating highest number of jobs across the world (Holman, Batt and Holtgrewe, 2007) and India is a major player in the this sector. The industry’s variability, novelty, technological intensity, work intensity with new sociological, anthropological, and economic networks at the intersection of globalization provide challenging opportunities for research. Ferni and Metcalf (1998) undertook pioneering research with respect to human resources issues and called the industry as modern age sweatshops far from the depiction of knowledge worker of twenty first century. In India, the employees are paid higher salaries compared to other industries for same qualifications. The industry is growing at highest rates compared to other industry sectors, indicating a win-win situation for all stakeholders. However, the industry is facing highest attrition rates in the world to the tune of 40%, with employees complaining disillusionment with jobs. Press publishes violation of cultural codes and changing lifestyles of employees. This context, present study is undertaken to address the issue of job attrition by using methodology given by social forecasting. The study is organized into five chapters. The first chapter introduces the genesis of Business Process Outsourcing Industry, its definition, growth, human resources issues, and discusses research for the past decade. This is to understand the nuances of industry that are different from that of Information technology industry as well as from other industries. It tries to portray human resources challenges of the Indian Business Process Outsourcing Industry and in the process establishes need, objectives, and significance of the study. Social forecasting which permits use of eclectic approach is introduced with definition, its relation with other types of forecasting, model procedure and validation process with required elaboration. Economic forecasting, demographic forecasting technological forecasting and political forecasting is provided for BPO industry for the period 2009-2014. The second chapter deals with literature survey and has four objectives. The first is to provide contextual clarity and examine the research with respect to BPO organizations in the areas relating to job attrition and job satisfaction, and in the process, establishing gaps in the literature. The second objective is to answer the need for social forecasting and initiation of social forecasting process. The third objective is to consider conceptual model for research and the fourth objective is to present typology of BPO organization. As suggested by researchers, social forecasting commence with the study of values. A detailed study of values is undertaken to clarify definitional issues. Values and its relation to attitude and behavior are reviewed. Role scope and need for its study is examined. The concept of individualization and its importance for study in the era of changes in life course and network economies is deliberated. A model for present research is discussed.