俄罗斯-东亚液化天然气贸易格局与区域能源安全

E. Rasoulinezhad, Farhad Taghizadeh‐Hesary, N. Yoshino, T. Sarker
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引用次数: 3

摘要

2018年,东亚仍是最大的液化天然气(LNG)市场。俄罗斯联邦有一个明确的愿景,即发展其东亚液化天然气项目,以提供更大的亚洲液化天然气进口份额。我们利用重力贸易理论对俄罗斯-东亚液化天然气贸易模式进行了建模,结果表明,重力贸易理论与能源贸易模式拟合良好。我们的研究结果显示,中华人民共和国、日本和韩国人口每增长1%,俄罗斯联邦的液化天然气出口就会增加近3.43%,经济增长就会增加6.16%,而地理距离的任何增加都会使对选定东亚经济体的液化天然气出口减少近7.3%。这意味着俄罗斯联邦靠近东亚是其液化天然气出口的一个优势。此外,西方对俄罗斯联邦的制裁是影响俄罗斯对东亚LNG出口量的积极因素。我们建议采取一些政策,如在亚洲建设天然气贸易中心、提高区域定价权、能源进口多样化以及缩短俄罗斯联邦(出口国)和东亚(进口国)之间的距离,以改善该地区的能源安全。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Russian Federation–East Asia Liquefied Natural Gas Trade Patterns and Regional Energy Security
East Asia has remained the biggest market for liquefied natural gas (LNG) in 2018. The Russian Federation has a clear vision to develop its East Asia LNG projects to provide a bigger share of Asian LNG imports. We model Russian Federation–East Asia LNG trade patterns via the gravity trade theory, which is shown to fit well with energy trade patterns. Our findings reveal that a 1% increase in population growth in the People’s Republic of China, Japan, and the Republic of Korea increases Russian Federation LNG exports by nearly 3.43%, and economic growth by 6.16%, while any increase in geographic distance decelerates LNG exports to the selected East Asian economies by nearly 7.3%. This means that the close proximity of the Russian Federation to East Asia is an advantage for its LNG exports. Furthermore, the West’s sanctions against the Russian Federation are a positive influencing factor on the latter’s LNG export volume to East Asia. We recommend some policies such as construction of a gas trading hub in Asia, increasing regional pricing power, and energy import diversification and shorter distances between the Russian Federation (exporter) and East Asia (importer) to improve energy security in this region.
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