特立尼达和多巴哥旅行时间价值的估算

Jevan Stephen, T. Townsend
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引用次数: 0

摘要

在评估旨在改善交通系统的项目的潜在影响时,旅行时间的价值是一个关键因素。特别是,对收费公路等项目可行性的评估,往往是以司机认为节省旅行时间的好处以及他们愿意为这种好处付费为前提的。在特立尼达和多巴哥,没有可以为估价提供依据的历史资料。本研究利用陈述偏好方法来确定旅行时间的本地值。我们编制了一份调查问卷,其中包含了一项明确的偏好调查,涉及在快速、昂贵的旅行选择和缓慢、便宜的旅行选择之间进行二元选择,同时还收集了受访者的社会经济数据和工作旅行特征。调查通过Whatsapp移动通讯应用程序进行方便抽样。为了开展调查,我们根据国内生产总值(gdp)和平均收入数据对旅行时间的价值进行了初步估计。利用最大似然法建立二元logistic回归模型,确定出行时间和出行成本参数。通过分析,得出的出行时间估计值是收入工资率的71%,是国内生产总值计算的工资率的48%。国内生产总值基准率与其他司法管辖区的估计一致。本研究的结果表明了对当地通勤者的VOT的估计。这是通过对462名通勤者的在线偏好调查完成的。工资率是根据该国的平均收入和国内生产总值数据估计的,以便用作编制所述偏好调查问卷的基线。该调查的结构使其能够使用二进制逻辑回归模型,然后开发该模型来表示收集的数据。采用最小似然法确定模型的参数和系数,并用于计算VOT。分析表明,VOT估计为24.74泰铢,考虑到其与全国工资率的比率,这被认为是合理的。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
ESTIMATION OF VALUE OF TRAVEL TIME IN TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO
: The value of travel time is a key component in evaluating the potential impacts of projects aimed at improving the transportation system. In particular, the evaluation of the feasibility of projects such as toll roads is often premised on the assumed benefits that drivers perceive from saving travel time and their willingness to pay for such benefits. In Trinidad and Tobago there is no historical information which could inform valuation. This study utilized stated preference methods to determine the local value of travel time. A questionnaire was developed that incorporated a stated preference survey involving binary choices between faster, expensive travel options and slower, cheaper ones and also captured socio – economic data and work trip characteristics of the respondents. It was administered using convenience sampling via the Whatsapp mobile messaging app. To develop the survey, a preliminary estimate of value of travel time was made based on both national Gross Domestic Product and average income data. A binary logistic regression model was developed utilizing the maximum likelihood method to determine the parameters of travel time and travel cost. Based on the analysis, the overall value of travel time estimate obtained was found to be 71% of the income wage rate and 48% of the wage rate calculated using Gross Domestic Product. The GDP base rate is consistent with estimates from other jurisdictions. The findings of this study indicate the estimation of the VOT for commuters locally. This was done using an online stated preference survey of 462 commuters. The wage rate was estimated using average income and GDP data for the country so as to be used as a baseline to develop the stated preference survey questionnaire. The survey was structured such that it enabled the use of a binary logistic regression model which was then developed to represent the data collected. Using least likelihood methods, the parameters and coefficients of the model were determined and used to calculate VOT. The analysis shows that VOT estimation was TT$24.74 which was deemed reasonable given its ratio to the national wage rate.
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