保加利亚在欧元区——其他国家的经验与比较

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摘要

2020年7月10日,保加利亚加入欧元区ERM II筹备机制,但各方意见仍存在分歧。作者的观点是,在支持或反对保加利亚加入欧元区的辩论中,实际数据提供了最有力的论据。本文介绍了五个已加入欧元区的前社会主义国家的经济指标和事实。有充分的理由赞成加入对三个波罗的海国家- -爱沙尼亚、拉脱维亚和立陶宛以及斯洛文尼亚和斯洛伐克- -的分析。这些国家作为货币联盟一部分的发展及其在这一重要步骤之后的经济指标表明,它们的目标是与欧洲发达经济体真正趋同。作者认为有两个问题特别重要——加入欧元区后这些经济体的通胀会发生什么变化,以及有关实际趋同的比较表明了什么。克罗地亚与保加利亚一样,已经成为ERM II和银行业联盟的一部分,因此它也被包括在分析中。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Bulgaria in the Eurozone – Other Countries’ Experience and Comparisons
On July 10 2020 Bulgaria joined the preparatory mechanism for the Eurozone ERM II, but the opinions expressed are still divided. The author’s opinion is that in the debate for or against Bulgaria joining the Eurozone, the actual data provides the strongest arguments. Economic indicators and facts about five former socialist countries that are already in the Eurozone are presented in the paper. There are solid arguments in favor of joining in the analysis of the three Baltic countries – Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, as well as Slovenia and Slovakia. These countries’ development as part of the monetary union and their economic indicators after this important step show their goal for real convergence with developed European economies. The author accepts two issues as especially important – what happens to inflation in these economies after joining the Eurozone and what the comparison concerning real convergence shows. Croatia, along with Bulgaria, has become a part of ERM II and the Banking Union, hence why it is also included in the analysis.
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