基于Facebook Prophet的时间序列预测:以Myintkyina的温度预测为例

Z. Oo, S. Phyu
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引用次数: 9

摘要

温度预报是一种渐进的时间序列分析过程,用于预测某一地点未来一段时间的温度状态。如今,农业和制造业主要依赖于温度,因此准确预测非常重要,因为温度预警可以挽救生命和财产。Prophet是一个模块化回归模型,通过使用简单的可解释参数,考虑自定义季节性和假日的影响,具有高精度的时间序列预测。本研究利用美国国家海洋和大气管理局(NOAA)提供的气象数据,提出了温度预报模型。本文实现了多步单变量时间序列预测模型,并将预测值与实际数据进行了比较。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Time Series Prediction Based on Facebook Prophet: A Case Study, Temperature Forecasting in Myintkyina
Temperature forecasting is a progressive and time series analysis process to forecast the state of the temperature for a certain location in coming time. Nowadays, agriculture and manufacturing sectors are mostly dependent on temperature so forecasting is important to be precise because temperature warnings can save life and property. In this work, the Prophet Forecasting Model is used for Myitkyina's annual temperature forecasting using historical (2010 to 2017) time series data. Myitkyina is the capital city of the northernmost state (Kachin) in Myanmar, located 1480 kilometers from Yangon. Prophet is a modular regression model for time series predictions with high accuracy by using simple interpretable parameters that consider the effect of custom seasonality and holidays. In this study, the temperature forecasting model is proposed by using weather dataset provided by an International institution, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). This work implements the multi-step univariate time series prediction model and compares the forecasted value against the actual data. Such findings check that the proposed forecasting model provides an efficient and accurate prediction for temperature in Myitkyina.
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