中东技术大学北塞浦路斯校区现场太阳辐射数据质量评估及全球倾斜辐射估算

Deniz Gören, O. Taylan
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摘要

金融机构需要可靠的数据集来保证大型太阳能项目的投资,从而减少能源产量估算的总体不确定性。基于卫星的长期数据大多可在全球获得;然而,它们的系统误差和偏差应该通过整合经过质量检查的地面测量来消除。在本研究中,使用若干质量控制测试进行了质量评估,以检测错误/缺失的数据点。在METU NCC中,2010年、2013年和2016年分别记录了全球水平辐射(GHI)、直接正常辐射(DNI)和全球倾斜辐射(GTI)。物理阈值和质量包络测试显示,在某些时期测量到的GHI值低于预期。因此,使用Erbs模型和测量的DNI数据来估计错误的GHI数据。线性插值方法可以填充最多2小时的缺失GHI数据,而更长的缺失数据则由估计的GHI填充。将实测和构建的GHI数据与从光伏地理信息系统(PVGIS)下载的2010-2016年卫星GHI数据进行比较。结果表明,经数据归档处理后,日总GHI的平均相对均方根误差(rRMSE)由34.63%降至17.77%。年平均日总GHI数据的rRMSE降至8.78%。此外,利用各向同性天空漫射模型估计了GTI,并将其与实测GTI进行了比较。每日总估算GTI的RMSE为22.41%,而基于卫星的GTI的RMSE为20.81%。最后,利用卫星和估算的GTI估算了1 MWp太阳能光伏电站的发电量。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Quality Assessment of On-site Solar Radiation Data and Estimating Global Tilted Irradiation in Middle East Technical University Northern Cyprus Campus
Financial institutions require bankable datasets to guarantee investments in large-scale solar energy projects, reducing the overall uncertainty of energy yield estimates. Long-term satellite-based data is mostly available globally; however, their systematic errors and bias should be removed by integrating quality-checked ground measurements if available. In this study, a quality assessment was done to detect erroneous/ missing data points using several quality-control tests. In METU NCC, global horizontal irradiation (GHI), direct normal irradiation (DNI), and global tilted irradiation (GTI) were recorded since 2010, 2013 and 2016, respectively. Physical threshold and quality envelope tests revealed that lower-than- expected GHI values were measured in some periods. Thus, erroneous GHI data was estimated using the Erbs model and measured DNI data. While up to 2 hours of missing GHI data were filled by linear interpolation, more extended missing data were filled by estimated GHI. Both measured and constructed GHI data were compared with satellite-based GHI data downloaded from the Photovoltaic Geographical Information System (PVGIS) for the time period 2010-2016. The results indicated that the average relative root-mean-square error (rRMSE) of daily total GHI reduced from 34.63% to 17.77% after the data filing process. The rRMSE decreased to 8.78% for the annual mean daily total GHI data. Additionally, GTI was estimated using the isotropic sky-diffuse model, and it was compared with measured GTI. RMSE of daily total estimated GTI was 22.41%, whereas satellite-based GTI had an RMSE of 20.81%. Finally, energy yield was estimated for 1 MWp solar photovoltaic (PV) plant using satellite-based and estimated GTI.
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