{"title":"过拟合:原因与解决方案(研讨会幻灯片)","authors":"Marcos M. López de Prado","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3544431","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"When used incorrectly, the risk of machine learning (ML) overfitting is extremely high. However, ML counts with sophisticated methods to prevent: (a) train set overfitting, and (b) test set overfitting. \n \nThus, the popular belief that ML overfits is false. A more accurate statement would be that: (1) in the wrong hands, ML overfits, and (2) in the right hands, ML is more robust to overfitting than classical methods. \n \nWhen it comes to modelling unstructured data, ML is the only choice. Classical statistics should be taught as a preparation for ML courses, with a focus on overfitting prevention.","PeriodicalId":365755,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometrics: Mathematical Methods & Programming (Topic)","volume":"15 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2020-02-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"2","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Overfitting: Causes and Solutions (Seminar Slides)\",\"authors\":\"Marcos M. López de Prado\",\"doi\":\"10.2139/ssrn.3544431\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"When used incorrectly, the risk of machine learning (ML) overfitting is extremely high. However, ML counts with sophisticated methods to prevent: (a) train set overfitting, and (b) test set overfitting. \\n \\nThus, the popular belief that ML overfits is false. A more accurate statement would be that: (1) in the wrong hands, ML overfits, and (2) in the right hands, ML is more robust to overfitting than classical methods. \\n \\nWhen it comes to modelling unstructured data, ML is the only choice. Classical statistics should be taught as a preparation for ML courses, with a focus on overfitting prevention.\",\"PeriodicalId\":365755,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"ERN: Other Econometrics: Mathematical Methods & Programming (Topic)\",\"volume\":\"15 1\",\"pages\":\"0\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2020-02-26\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"2\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"ERN: Other Econometrics: Mathematical Methods & Programming (Topic)\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3544431\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"ERN: Other Econometrics: Mathematical Methods & Programming (Topic)","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3544431","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
Overfitting: Causes and Solutions (Seminar Slides)
When used incorrectly, the risk of machine learning (ML) overfitting is extremely high. However, ML counts with sophisticated methods to prevent: (a) train set overfitting, and (b) test set overfitting.
Thus, the popular belief that ML overfits is false. A more accurate statement would be that: (1) in the wrong hands, ML overfits, and (2) in the right hands, ML is more robust to overfitting than classical methods.
When it comes to modelling unstructured data, ML is the only choice. Classical statistics should be taught as a preparation for ML courses, with a focus on overfitting prevention.