{"title":"多种证券的需求定价模拟","authors":"Ming Liu, B. Nelson, J. Staum","doi":"10.1109/WSC.2010.5678973","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"We develop a sequential experiment design procedure to construct multiple metamodels based on a single stochastic simulation model. We apply the procedure to approximate many securities' prices as functions of a financial scenario. We propose a cross-validation method that adds design points and simulation effort at the design points to target all metamodels' relative prediction errors. To improve the expected quality of the metamodels given randomness of the scenario that is an input to the simulation model, we also propose a way to choose design points so that the scenario is likely to fall inside their convex hull.","PeriodicalId":272260,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the 2010 Winter Simulation Conference","volume":"16 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2010-12-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"9","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Simulation on demand for pricing many securities\",\"authors\":\"Ming Liu, B. Nelson, J. Staum\",\"doi\":\"10.1109/WSC.2010.5678973\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"We develop a sequential experiment design procedure to construct multiple metamodels based on a single stochastic simulation model. We apply the procedure to approximate many securities' prices as functions of a financial scenario. We propose a cross-validation method that adds design points and simulation effort at the design points to target all metamodels' relative prediction errors. To improve the expected quality of the metamodels given randomness of the scenario that is an input to the simulation model, we also propose a way to choose design points so that the scenario is likely to fall inside their convex hull.\",\"PeriodicalId\":272260,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Proceedings of the 2010 Winter Simulation Conference\",\"volume\":\"16 1\",\"pages\":\"0\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2010-12-05\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"9\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Proceedings of the 2010 Winter Simulation Conference\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC.2010.5678973\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Proceedings of the 2010 Winter Simulation Conference","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC.2010.5678973","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
We develop a sequential experiment design procedure to construct multiple metamodels based on a single stochastic simulation model. We apply the procedure to approximate many securities' prices as functions of a financial scenario. We propose a cross-validation method that adds design points and simulation effort at the design points to target all metamodels' relative prediction errors. To improve the expected quality of the metamodels given randomness of the scenario that is an input to the simulation model, we also propose a way to choose design points so that the scenario is likely to fall inside their convex hull.